September 19, 2022
There is a band of showers roughly 50 miles wide which is moving on shore near Santa Barbara then stretches northward through northwest Kern County, through Kings County and then northward through Fresno and Madera Counties before sweeping through Yosemite. We call this a train echo as it trains over the same area with little movement. This band will be with us for a while as satellite imagery is showing it trailing out to the southwest over the ocean. The center of circulation of the low has actually moved slightly northwestward, further out to sea. However, models indicate this system will move northwestward Tuesday night and Wednesday, ending this latest precipitation event. Rainfall amounts have so far been spotty and generally light, although a few locations have picked up a quarter of an inch or so. As of 5:00am, Lemoore had picked up .03, Avenal .12, Fresno .02, Five Points .25, Los Banos .14, and Merced .13. Upper level high pressure will slowly build in from the west beginning Thursday, but in the meantime, some locations may not even reach 80 degrees this afternoon. Models, though, show we could be hitting 90 as early as Saturday with readings in the mid 90s Monday through Wednesday of next week. for now, no triple digit temps are in sight, although this is a minority view on models.
Forecast: A continuing risk of showers through tonight. A chance of showers Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 80/61/82/59/82 | Reedley 81/60/83/55/82 | Dinuba 80/58/83/55/83 |
| Porterville 82/59/83/56/82 | Lindsay 81/57/83/56/81 | Delano 83/61/82/59/81 |
| Bakersfield 83/65/83/62/81 | Taft 81/65/81/61/80 | Arvin 83/62/82/60/82 |
| Lamont 82/63/82/62/81 | Pixley 82/58/83/55/82 | Tulare 79/59/81/58/81 |
| Woodlake 80/60/82/57/82 | Hanford 81/61/82/57/82 | Orosi 80/59/82/56/81 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Mostly clear 52/83 |
Friday
Mostly clear 53/85 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 57/89 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 58/93 |
Monday
Mostly clear 59/95 |
Two Week Outlook: September 26 through October 2: This model shows a blanket of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California for above average temperatures. It also points to an active monsoon with moisture moving into Arizona and possibly southern California.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will generally be out of the southeast at 5 to15 mph at times with local gusts to 25 mph near showers through Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night through Thursday will be generally at or less than 12 mph and variable in nature.
Rain: A band of light showers continues to move from south to north through extreme northeastern Kern County then northward through the valley and finally into the Sierra near Yosemite. Later this morning, this moisture feed will dry up somewhat. The air aloft with this system is not critically cold, but it is unstable. The daytime heating process will trigger scattered showers this afternoon and possibly again Tuesday afternoon. The low will accelerate later Tuesday for a drying trend with dry weather beginning Wednesday and continuing all through next week. the two week model indicates above average precipitation for southern California the 26 through October 2. But near average rainfall for central and northern California is expected, meaning the chance of rain is very low but worth monitoring.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 78%/29% Porterville, 84%/28%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 70%/. Tomorrow, 60%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.47, Parlier 1.29, Arvin 1.44, Orange Cove .*, Porterville 1.22, Delano 1.25. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 77, Arvin, 79, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 85, Delano 83. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 90/60. Record Temperatures: 105/44
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2169 +462. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.61. Monthly .01 -.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.92. Monthly, -.01 -.02
Average Temperature this month: 82.8 +6.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:45, Sunset, 6:59, hours of daylight, 12:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 80 / 59 / 0.02 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 78 / 57 / T /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 79 / 61 / T /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 83 / 57 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 82 / 57 / T /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 59 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1650 / 74 / 65 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 85 / 54 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 84 / 60 / 0.00 /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
STOCKTON T 9.81 73 7.89 59 13.39 13.45
MODESTO 0.05 9.05 74 7.15 58 12.23 12.27
MERCED 0.02 7.46 63 7.00 60 11.76 11.80
MADERA T M M M M 10.77 10.79
FRESNO T 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.10 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 85 2.77 44 6.33 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 6.73 141 1.69 35 4.77 4.84
SALINAS 0.03 7.34 59 5.79 46 12.54 12.58
PASO ROBLES T 8.77 72 6.74 56 12.11 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.85 59 6.88 52 13.28 13.32
Next report: Sunday, September 19/afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.