October 3, 2022
The weather this week will be uneventful. Temperatures yesterday were pretty close to seasonal and will rise to marginally above average today and Tuesday as the next ridge of upper level high pressure slowly builds in from the west. The marine layer is 2,400 feet deep this morning which, theoretically, is deep enough to move down the valley. However, pressures at the surface are higher over the interior than they are along the coast, resulting in a weak off shore flow. That same off shore flow will, in part, result in the next warming trend which will drive temperatures into the mid 90s by Friday. This is not record territory, but is close. The same drought pattern which has been with us several years will continue through at least the first ten days of October. We may see some monsoon moisture work in this weekend. Some models are showing isolated thunderstorms over the high Sierra, but nothing of any consequence. The next cooling trend will have to wait until early next week when the next trough of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest, lowering pressures aloft and turning the off shore flow on shore. This will allow the modified sea breeze to move temperatures closer to seasonal averages by Monday or Tuesday.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday. Mostly clear skies will continue Thursday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 88/53/90/55/93 | Reedley 90/54/91/57/94 | Dinuba 88/53/91/56/93 |
| Porterville 89/53/92/56/94 | Lindsay 88/52/91/55/93 | Delano 89/55/91/56/93 |
| Bakersfield 88/65/90/67/92 | Taft 88/66/90/67/92 | Arvin 88/60/92/63/94 |
| Lamont 89/61/92/58/94 | Pixley 88/54/90/57/93 | Tulare 87/52/90/55/92 |
| Woodlake 87/51/92/55/93 | Hanford 89/55/91/57/94 | Orosi 87/51/90/55/92 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Mostly clear 57/95 |
Friday
Mostly clear 58/96 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 58/95 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 59/95 |
Monday
Mostly clear 57/90 |
Two Week Outlook: October 10 through October 16 This model doesn’t really give guidance for either above or below average rainfall, therefore the chance of rain will remain low. Temperatures will remain marginally above average.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning through the early morning hours will be variable to no more than 12 mph. winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 78%/36% Porterville, 88%/38%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.42, Parlier 1.22, Arvin 1.42, Orange Cove .*, Porterville 1.18, Delano 1.22. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 73, Parlier 76, Arvin, 77, Orange Cove 81, Porterville NA, Delano 80. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 85/56. Record Temperatures: 101/41
Heating Degree Days This Season. +0 -6. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.02 Monthly .,00 -.02
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.01. Monthly, -.00 -.01
Average Temperature this month: 74.0 +4.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:57, Sunset, 6:38, hours of daylight, 11:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 85 / 57 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 54 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 87 / 60 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 59 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 86 / 59 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 84 / 75 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 85 / 56 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1628 / 84 / 59 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 84 / 65 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 13.32
Next report: Tuesday, October 4
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.