October 6, 2022
You can’t really see it unless you view water vapor satellite imagery, but there is a weak cut off low developing over northern Baja which is embedded within upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and most of the western US. It’s possible this little system could rotate mid and high level moisture in from the southeast, especially Saturday and Sunday. There may be enough moisture to trigger isolated thunderstorms over the high Sierra. With a northeast flow aloft, a few of these cells could drift out over the foothills. I would put this chance at less than 20% but nevertheless, still a chance. By Sunday, another low will develop over the Pacific Northwest and will slide southward over northern California Monday. it will park off the central coast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. This feature could also rotate a limited amount of moisture around its counter clockwise circulation to trigger isolated activity over the high Sierra. So far, the moisture is limited in both of these features so for now I see no reason to add precipitation to the forecast. The stronger low, which 24 hours ago appeared over northern California, is not even on most maps this morning so it appears the chance of rain will be very low over the next 10 days. Significant cooling will occur next week. in the meantime, though, late summer type weather will continue through Monday.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Monday. mostly clear to possibly partly cloudy Monday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 95/55/95/56/96 | Reedley 95/56/96/57/96 | Dinuba 93/54/94/54/94 |
| Porterville 94/54/95/54/96 | Lindsay 94/55/94/56/94 | Delano 95/56/95/57/95 |
| Bakersfield 93/68/93/69/93 | Taft 92/71/93/70/93 | Arvin 95/61/96/61/96 |
| Lamont 95/60/96/56/96 | Pixley 94/57/94/57/95 | Tulare 92/54/93/54/93 |
| Woodlake 93/55/93/55/94 | Hanford 95/56/96/56/96 | Orosi 93/54/94/54/95 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 57/95 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 56/92 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 56/90 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 53/87 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 52/80 |
Two Week Outlook: October 13 through October 19: This model continues to depict a dry pattern for central California. Late season monsoon moisture will continue to move into Arizona and New Mexico. It appears this moisture will be too far to the southeast to affect central California. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning through the early morning hours will be variable to no more than 12 mph. winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 84%33%, Porterville, 92%/32%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.31, Parlier 1.16, Arvin 1.35, Porterville 1.14, Delano 1.14. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 73, Parlier 75, Arvin, 76, Porterville 81, Delano 79. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 83/55. Record Temperatures: 100/36
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -8. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.04 Monthly .,00 -.04
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.02. Monthly, -.00 -.02
Average Temperature this month: 73.6 +4.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:59, Sunset, 6:32, hours of daylight, 11:36
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 93 / 54 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 93 / 55 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 63 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 93 / 57 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 95 / 55 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 91 / 64 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 92 / 58 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 86 / 60 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 93 / 61 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1647 / 92 / 68 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.04 13.32
Next report: Friday, October 7
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