October 15, 2022
The main feature this morning is a cut off low located just off the northern Baja coastline. Otherwise, a weakening ridge of high pressure covers most of the west with a ridge into southern British Columbia. The cut off low will begin to slowly move eastward today. As it does, it will throw some monsoonal moisture over the region, mainly south of Kern County, so no impact on valley weather is expected. A weak trough of low pressure is approaching from the west. The trough will never really reach California as the high will efficiently block it. Most models show it pinching off into a new cut off low, this time far enough off shore to have minimal, if any, effect on the valley. It will eventually move inland, but not until next weekend. Just the fact that these various weak systems are near California will bring temperatures down somewhat with near seasonal readings Sunday and Monday. many locations may end up near the 80 degree mark
Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday with a cooling trend. Mostly clear skies will continue Monday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 87/52/81/50/82 | Reedley 87/53/82/50/82 | Dinuba 86/52/82/50/82 |
| Porterville 88/53/83/50/83 | Lindsay 87/51/81/49/82 | Delano 88/53/82/51/82 |
| Bakersfield 87/62/81/58/81 | Taft 87/63/79/59/80 | Arvin 88/55/83/56/82 |
| Lamont 88/60/82/55/81 | Pixley 87/53/81/51/82 | Tulare 86/53/81/49/81 |
| Woodlake 87/52/80/51/81 | Hanford 87/53/82/50/82 | Orosi 86/53/82/48/81 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 52/85 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 53/86 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 53/85 |
Friday
Mostly clear 55/87 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 53/86 |
Two Week Outlook: October 21 through October 27: For the first time this season, this model is showing a chance for above average precipitation all the way from the Pacific Northwest to the Mexico border. Even so, temperatures are projected to be somewhat above average.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally variable to no more than 10 mph during the late mornings and afternoons through Tuesday. Winds during the overnight hours will be generally no more than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather for a at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 77%28%, Porterville, 88%/28%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.28, Parlier 1.05, Arvin 1.32, Porterville 1.09, Delano 1.09. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 72, Parlier 72, Arvin, 76, Porterville 80, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 79/52. Record Temperatures: 99/36
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -18. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.13, Monthly .,00 -.13
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.06. Monthly, -.00 -.06
Average Temperature this month: 74.53+6.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:03, Sunset, 6:19, hours of daylight, 11:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 88 / 51 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 88 / 52 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 60 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 52 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 90 / M / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 63 / 0.00 /
- NID : China Lake NAWS 2283 : DH1700 / 92 / 53 / 0.00 /
- 9L2 : North Edwards AFB 2300 : DH1700 / 90 / M / 0.00 /
- \VIS Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 88 / 53 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 92 / 56 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 88 / 57 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 87 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
24h sea. % L.Y % ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.18 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 8 0.13 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 25 0.16 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 45 0.11 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 308 0.13 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.06 46 0.13 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.06 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.15 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.16 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 7 0.14 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.12 13.32
Next report: Monday, October 17
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.