Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

October 19, 2022 report

October 18, 2022

There remains an upper low about 500 miles off shore. It’s too far out there to offer any weather of any significance. Fairly weak high pressure continues to cover the western states. At the surface, there’s an off shore flow which will aid in the warming trend. In fact, warmer locations will be near the 90 degree mark today through Friday. We are still due for a major pattern change the second half of the weekend. The jet stream will buckle over the Pacific Northwest Friday into Saturday then will quickly send an inside slider into the Great Basin. Where models differ is how far west the western rim of the low will shove inland. The GFS model shows showers over the Sierra Nevada but not the valley, while blended model information shows a 25% chance of light showers as far south as Porterville. With all this in mind, I do feel it’s necessary to keep a small chance of light shower in the forecast for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning as a fast moving cold front moves through. Up slope clouds will develop in the south valley as a strong northwest flow is lifted by the Tehachapi Mountains and the Sierra Nevada. Much cooler and occasionally breezy weather can be anticipated.  In fact, that same blended model shows a high of 70 for Porterville Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, a large high over the eastern Pacific will begin to bulge into California as we return to a dry pattern by the end of next week.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Saturday morning. Increasing cloudiness Saturday afternoon with a minimal chance of light showers Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Clearing late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night from Fresno County north but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern, Tulare, and Kings Counties into Monday morning. Mostly clear skies Monday afternoon through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 90/53/91/54/90 Reedley 90/54/91/55/89 Dinuba 89/54/90/54/89
Porterville 90/53/91/54/90 Lindsay 89/52/90/53/89 Delano 91/55/91/55/89
Bakersfield 89/65/89/66/88 Taft 89/68/91/67/89 Arvin 91/61/91/54/90
Lamont 92/62/91/61/89 Pixley 90/55/91/55/89 Tulare 88/52/89/54/88
Woodlake 90/53/91/53/90 Hanford 91/55/91/55/89 Orosi 88/53/89/53/89

 

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday

Pm showers

53/89

Sunday

Am showers

48/75

Monday

Partly cloudy

43/70

Tuesday

Mostly clear

43/74

Wednesday

Mostly clear

47/75

 

Two Week Outlook:  October 26 through November 1  This model shows a broad trough of low pressure over the west for a chance of showers during this period. Temperatures will finally end up below average.

 

October:  This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.

 

October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds will be generally variable to no more than 10 mph during the late mornings and afternoons through Friday night. Winds late Saturday will be out of the northwest at  10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph, decreasing during the evening and becoming light Saturday night.

 

Rain: A fast moving cold front and trough of low pressure will move down the valley late Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Some models indicate the valley will remain dry, however blended models give a 25% chance of light showers as far south as Porterville. For this reason, we’ll maintain a small chance of light showers in the forecast from mainly a Porterville/Tipton line for later Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. High pressure will quickly follow, meaning a return to dry weather beginning Sunday afternoon and lasting through the end of next week. if any rain does occur, expect less than .10.

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.Next report: Wednesday, October 18

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.