October 27, 2022
Temperatures on the valley floor are running roughly 2 to 4 degrees cooler than yesterday. Afternoon highs, however, will actually be a tad higher than yesterday due to a ridge of upper level high pressure which is building in from the eastern Pacific. Most locations both today and Friday will run in the mid 70s. The freezing level over Vandenberg AFB was 10,400 feet while Oakland was reporting 9,800 feet. The medium range outlook is becoming more interesting with time. By Tuesday, a low center will be developing just west of Vancouver Island with a trough extending from the low out to the sea. That trough will begin to approach the coast as early as Tuesday night. However, the risk factor for rain will increase substantially from Wednesday into Thursday as a nice big, fat low centers right over central California. One thing I have been noticing the past few days is that models are becoming more agreeable in the likelihood of rain next Wednesday into Friday. That’s not to say it will be raining the full time, just periods of rain during that time frame. This far out, thunderstorm development is tough to discern, but with a storm that has reasonably strong dynamics with a cold pool of air overhead, there is some risk. Some models are also showing another low moving in mainly over northern California late the following weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday night. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night with a chance of showers. Periods of showers likely Wednesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 75/39/77/41/75 | Reedley 76/38/77/40/75 | Dinuba 74/38/76/41/74 |
| Porterville 77/39/78/41/76 | Lindsay 76/37/76/40/74 | Delano 77/41/77/42/75 |
| Bakersfield 74/51/76/53/74 | Taft 73/54/75/52/73 | Arvin 78/45/77/47/76 |
| Lamont 77/45/88/44/75 | Pixley 75/41/77/42/74 | Tulare 73//38/75/40/74 |
| Woodlake 75/40/76/41/76 | Hanford 77/40/78/42/76 | Orosi 75/39/76/40/75 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Mostly clear 47/68 |
Monday
Mostly clear 44/66 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 43/68 |
Wednesday
Periods of showers 42/71 |
Thursday
Periods of showers 48/72 |
Two Week Outlook: November 2 through November 8 This model certainly shows a greater potential for rain during this period. Along with the chance of rain will come a colder air mass, resulting in below average temperatures.
November: Both the 30 and 90 day projections indicate a swath of below average rainfall from southern California eastward to Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Much of northern California is projected to have near average rainfall. Temperatures will remain marginally above average.
November, December, January: The 90 day model also projects lower than average precipitation from southern California through Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Northern and north/central California are projected to have near average precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds later today will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Locally stronger gusts are possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds later this evening through Sunday will be generally at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Monday night and possibly through Tuesday. It appears we may be in line for our first precipitation event of the season about the middle of next week. a big, juicy trough of low pressure will cover California and the eastern Pacific Wednesday through Friday. A big low centered over California will rotate bands of showers into our region from time to time. It’s way to early to firmly discuss precipitation potential, but at this point .25 to .33 seems plausible. Dry weather will return by Friday night with possibly a second system affecting at least northern California later next week.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 80%/20%, Porterville, 95%/21%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: 100%, tomorrow 100%.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .98, Parlier, .78, Arvin 1.03, Porterville, .82, Delano .80.
Tomorrow, 90. Seven day soil temperature
Stratford.69, Parlier 68, Arvin, 72, Porterville 72, Delano 71. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 74/48. Record Temperatures: 89/35
Heating Degree Days This Season. 27 -31. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.42, Monthly .,00 -.39
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.20. Monthly, -.00 -.18
Average Temperature this month: 70.2 +4.7, Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:19, Sunset, 6:06, hours of daylight, 10:49
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 72 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 72 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 73 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 72 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 73 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 68 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 73 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 72 / 55 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 3.86 757 0.51 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 2.80 683 0.41 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 1.73 360 0.48 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.57 178 0.32 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 1.27 302 0.42 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 1.10 314 0.35 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.94 470 0.20 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.65 217 0.30 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 0.01 2 1.62 360 0.45 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 1.57 374 0.42 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 1.29 331 0.39 13.32
Next report: Friday, October 28
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.