November 1, 2022 pm report

November 1, 2022

As of midday, a cold front was stretched from the northern Sierra Nevada southwestward to just west of Monterey. Locally moderate to heavy rain is occurring in a band of moisture roughly 75 miles wide. This has spread into the Stockton/Modesto area and just west of Merced County. Rain will advance steadily down the valley, reaching Fresno County by late afternoon and down to Kern County by this evening. Behind the cold front will be a lull in the precipitation later tonight through Wednesday morning with another piece of energy rotating through central California late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The air mass is considerably cooler behind the front with readings well below average expected Wednesday through Friday. There’s a chance for at least local frost Friday and Saturday mornings. This is detailed below in the frost summary.

It now appears we’ll see dry weather from Thursday and on through the weekend as a very active line of weather systems moves into the Pacific Northwest, affecting roughly the northern ¼ of California Saturday and Sunday. If models hold, what appears to be a significant storm will affect not only northern and central California Monday night and Tuesday, but moisture starved southern California should finally get into the act. The next 10 days will be very beneficial for rain for northern California. Central California will have more opportunities for precipitation later next week, perhaps Thursday or Friday. We’ll concentrate on that in the coming days.

Forecast: Rain spreading southeastward down the valley this afternoon, reaching Kern County this evening. Behind the front will be a chance of scattered showers tonight through Wednesday. Another chance of showers will move through late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Lingering showers are possible Thursday morning, mainly in Kern County. Otherwise it will be partly cloudy Thursday but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Mostly clear Friday and Friday night with patchy morning fog. Variable cloudiness Saturday through Sunday. Rain will again be possible at times Monday through Tuesday.

Short Term:

Madera 43/60/36/56	Reedley 44/61/36/57	Dinuba 43/59/35/57
porterville 46/59/37/58	Lindsay 43/61/35/58	Delano 45/61/39/59
Bakersfield 49/58/40/56	Taft 49/57/44/55	Arvin 46/57/41/56
Lamont 46/58/41/57	Pixley 44/60/38/57	Tulare 42/59/36/56
Woodlake 43/60/37/57	Hanford 43/61/37/58	Orosi 42/60/35/57

Wind Discussion: Ahead of the front this afternoon,, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph at times with locally stronger gusts. Winds tonight will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be generally in the 5 to 12 mph range with stronger gusts, mainly near showers. Winds Friday will be generally at or less than 10 mph and variable in nature.

Rain: As of the time of this writing, rain was knocking on the door at Merced County and will spread down the valley this afternoon, reaching Fresno County by midafternoon and Kern County this evening. The rain will quickly decrease later tonight into more widely scattered showers which will continue Wednesday. It appears another band of energy will move through Wednesday night, resulting in another chance of showers into early Thursday morning, especially in Kern County. Outside of a few lingering showers, mainly near the foothills and in Kern County early Thursday morning, the remainder of Thursday will be dry. It looks like dry weather will last through the weekend. Some models are suggesting a stronger storm will move into most of California Monday night through Tuesday night. This one looks good on paper, but stay tuned.

Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees through Thursday morning. High resolution model information this afternoon puts out 36 in Porterville for Friday morning and 37 Saturday. This air mass will be cold enough for areas of frost on both of these mornings with most locations ranging in the 30s but with those coldest low spots possibly down to 28 to 30 for short durations.

Variable cloudiness will overspread the valley this weekend from storms to our north. Winds aloft will be out of the southwest so it appears temperatures will generally be in the 40s Sunday and beyond. As of now, there’s nothing showing up that would be conducive for frost in the near and medium terms.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root Creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: November 1 afternoon

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.