November 2, 2022 pm report

November 2, 2022

The second phase of the current storm is well underway. An area of light showers has developed over mainly Santa Clara and San Benito Counties and is moving into Merced and Stanislaus Counties. This impulse is rotating through a cold trough of low pressure currently over California. It will affect most of the valley this afternoon through the late evening hours, ending in most areas by midnight with the possibility of Kern County having lingering showers into early Thursday morning. The back side of the trough will move into the Great Basin Thursday, ending the first significant storm of the season. A flat zone of upper level high pressure will build in from the eastern Pacific. The northwest flow behind the exiting storm should form a deck of upslope clouds over the north facing slopes of the Tehachapis, meaning cloud cover will be slow to clear over the southernmost county of the valley, possibly as far north as southeastern Tulare County.

Dry weather will continue through Sunday even though the Pacific Northwest will continue to be battered by Pacific storm. Models look good for a prolonged storm system digging southward Sunday night from the Gulf of Alaska, spreading precipitation over most of California for the period Monday through Wednesday. This should drop some heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada and possibly some significant precipitation in the low lands. After Wednesday, a big ridge shows up for several days of dry weather thereafter.

Forecast: Showers during the late afternoon through evening hours with a slight chance of lingering showers after midnight, mainly in Kern County. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday morning. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Partly cloudy again Saturday night. Increasing clouds Sunday. Periods of rain Monday through Wednesday morning, ending Wednesday afternoon.

Short Term:

Madera 39/58/33/62	Reedley 41/58/33/63	Dinuba 40/58/32/62
Porterville 43/67/34/64	Lindsay 41/59/32/63	Delano 42/56/35/61
Bakersfield 45/55/39/61	Taft 47/55/41/61	Arvin 44/57/37/62
Lamont 46/58/37/62	Pixley 42/56/34/62	Tulare 40/55/33/61
Woodlake 40/58/33/64	Hanford 42/58/34/64	Orosi 40/57/32/62

Wind Discussion: Ahead of the front this afternoon,, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph at times with locally stronger gusts. Winds tonight will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be generally in the 5 to 12 mph range with stronger gusts, mainly near showers. Winds Friday will be generally at or less than 10 mph and variable in nature.

Rain: As of the time of this writing, showers were developing in western Fresno County northeastward through Monterey County. This activity is moving southeastward at around 30 mph. These showers will affect most of the valley from later this afternoon through the evening hours, decreasing after midnight. Wetter locations could pick up .10 to .15 with most locations receiving nothing to a tenth of an inch. It’s possible a few lingering showers will continue during the early morning hours, mainly in Kern County, but from Thursday through Sunday, dry weather will return. The chance of rain will again increase Sunday night ahead of a major storm with periods of precipitation from Monday through about Wednesday morning. On paper, this looks to be a significant event so, with some luck, we should see heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada and hopefully plenty of rain on the valley floor. It will be nice to see those foothills greening up for a change.

Frost: Friday morning, and to a lesser extent Saturday morning, will see widespread 30s over much of the valley. Most frost stations will chill into the low to mid 30s. High level blended model information depicts Porterville at 36 Friday morning and 38 Saturday. Colder locations will dip down to 31 to 33 with a small chance of those cold pockets out there dipping into the upper 20s. Keep in mind, if there is lingering cloud cover, conditions there will be milder. Saturday morning looks to be more of a mid to upper 30s event with colder locations in the lower 30s. Sunday morning and beyond will see temperatures above 32 degrees due to a prolonged wet period of time. Currently, nothing shows up that would be conducive for critically cold weather.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root Creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: November 3 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.