November 2, 2022
Amounts of precipitation yesterday were fairly light, but it’s a start. Most locations ranged from .10 to .25. The important thing is that it did actually rain. The trough of low pressure is still overhead and will continue to be through tonight. With a little luck, a second impulse will move through during the overnight hours with another round of showers lasting into the early morning hours. The back side of the trough will finally shift into the Great Basin Thursday for a temporary period of dry weather. A flat zone of upper level high pressure will be in place into Saturday. The first of two storms will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Saturday, spreading precipitation down a Monterey/Stockton line but probably no further. More importantly is there is a second storm out there which is being portrayed as a rain maker for all of California. This system looks to have strong dynamics. One in theory could drop half inch plus totals on the valley floor with heavy snow up and down the Sierra Nevada. This one should begin Monday night and, if all goes as planned, last into Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, we will enter a dry pattern.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today with the risk of scattered showers. Cloudy tonight with showers becoming likely. Partly cloudy Thursday but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County into Friday morning. Mostly clear Friday afternoon and night. Partly cloudy Saturday. Variable cloudiness Saturday night through Monday. rain likely at times Monday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/39/56/34/62 | Reedley 62/38/58/34/62 | Dinuba 61/38/57/34/61 |
| Porterville 60/40/58/34/63 | Lindsay 61/38/57/33/63 | Delano 60/40/57/34/63 |
| Bakersfield 61/46/56/42/61 | Taft 59/47/55/43/60 | Arvin 62/45/54/39/61 |
| Lamont 62/46/56/37/60 | Pixley 61/40/55/36/62 | Tulare 59/41/55/35/61 |
| Woodlake 60/40/58/35/62 | Hanford 62/42/57/35/62 | Orosi 61/41/58/34/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Variable clouds 35/62 |
Sunday
Variable clouds 42/65 |
Monday
Pm rain 44/67 |
Tuesday
Periods of rain 42/62 |
Wednesday
Periods of rain 38/61 |
Two Week Outlook: November 8 through November 14: This model shows a pattern which would be somewhat favorable for storms to move into northern California with central California being on its southern fringe. Expect temperatures to be below average.
November: Both the 30 and 90 day projections indicate a swath of below average rainfall from southern California eastward to Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Much of northern California is projected to have near average rainfall. Temperatures will remain marginally above average.
November, December, January: The 90 day model also projects lower than average precipitation from southern California through Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Northern and north/central California are projected to have near average precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds through tonight will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph. Local gusts to near 20 mph are possible near showers. Winds Friday will be light and variable. Winds Saturday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph.
Rain: Rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours are as follows: Merced .33, Los Banos .23, Fresno .13, Bakersfield .18, Porterville .14, Visalia .02, Del Rey .12, Firebaugh .16, Madera .15, stratford .09, arvin .11, and Delano .11.
There will be somewhat of a lull today with only lightly scattered showers at best. However, there is another pocket of energy off the central coast which will rotate in tonight, hopefully spreading more showers into the valley, ending by sunrise. Amounts shouldn’t be that great, but if we get another tenth or two, I’ll be pleased. Look for dry weather Thursday through Sunday. Models are advertising a significant storm system affecting California Monday night through Wednesday of next week. it’s too early to outguess Mother Nature and come up with projected rainfall amounts. But this far out, it does appear to be a fairly strong Pacific storm which could tally up some decent figures. It should also dump heavy snow up and down the Sierra Nevada. After Wednesday, it looks like the weather will dry up again.
Frost: It appears frost is likely in some areas Friday and possibly Saturday morning. High resolution models have nudged temperatures up a degree or so, but it looks like most locations will be in the mid to upper 30s with colder locations down into the low to mid 30s. We’ll keep that slight chance of a cold river bottom out there somewhere dipping into the upper 20s. So, this is the coldest air mass of the season so far and thankfully it’s no big deal. Readings over the weekend will be above freezing due to weather moving inland to our north. Next week will be quite active with a good chance of rain. Beyond that, high pressure will build in from the west, creating a warm bubble of air over California for safe conditions.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root Creek
Af |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 84%/34%, Porterville, 96%/34%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s Kern: Low to mid 40s. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: 40%, tomorrow 20%.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .76, Parlier, .64, Arvin .87, Porterville, .71, Delano .72.
Tomorrow, 90. Seven day soil temperature
Stratford 65, Parlier 61, Arvin, 66, Porterville 66, Delano 65. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 71/46. Record Temperatures: 88/34
Heating Degree Days This Season. 64 -22. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .T -.58, Monthly .,T -.56
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.29. Monthly, -.00 -.28
Average Temperature this month: 68.1 +3.5, Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:25, Sunset, 6:00, hours of daylight, 10:37
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 69 / 49 / 0.33 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 68 / 45 / 0.04 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 69 / 49 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 41 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 76 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 72 / 46 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 69 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 74 / 45 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 73 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 50 / 0.23 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.22 0.22 31 3.86 536 0.72 13.45
MODESTO 0.24 0.24 42 2.84 498 0.57 12.27
MERCED 0.34 0.34 51 1.73 258 0.67 11.80
MADERA 0.07 0.07 15 0.57 124 0.46 10.79
FRESNO T T 0 1.27 219 0.58 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 1.10 229 0.48 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.94 324 0.29 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.65 181 0.36 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 M M 0.12 2.20
SALINAS 0.23 0.24 38 1.62 257 0.63 12.58
PASO ROBLES T T 0 1.57 271 0.58 12.15
SANTA MARIA T T 0 1.29 226 0.57 13.32
Next report: November 2 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.