November 3, 2022
The current storm system stretches as a trough of low pressure from Montana to southern California. There are lingering showers over the Kern County mountains and the Sierra Nevada. Doppler radar now indicates the valley is free of showers. The air mass now invading central California is cold. the freezing level is 4,800 feet, so the snow level is at about 4,500 feet over the Kern County mountains. Temperatures on the valley floor are generally running 4 to 8 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Readings this afternoon will warm into the mid to upper 50s. areas of frost will develop tonight, which is discussed below.
Satellite imagery shows plenty of upslope clouds banking up against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. These clouds will be slow to clear, although north of Kern County and southeastern Tulare County, a day of warm sunshine and cool air can be expected.
Weak upper level high pressure will now stretch from the eastern Pacific eastward into California, temporarily shoving the storm track back into the Pacific Northwest. There is now a good trend on models showing a significant low pressure system parking over the Pacific Northwest and off shore Sunday night through Wednesday morning of next week. the low will build a trough clear into southern California, spreading much needed precipitation from one end of the state to the other. Some models portray places like Fresno and Merced receiving between one and two inches between late Sunday night and Wednesday with plenty of snow in the Sierra Nevada. Wednesday morning appears to be the end of this event as upper level high pressure begins to push in from the west. Temperatures from now through the end of next week will largely be below average.
Forecast: Mostly clear north of Kern and southeastern Tulare Counties today, but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern and southeastern Tulare County through midafternoon. Mostly clear Friday with the exception of possibly lingering clouds in the south valley. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night leading to a chance of rain after midnight from Fresno County north. Rain at times Monday through early Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and night. Becoming mostly clear Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/33/63/36/65 | Reedley 55/32/63/34/63 | Dinuba 57/34/63/35/64 |
| Porterville 56/34/63/35/65 | Lindsay 57/32/63/34/65 | Delano 55/37/63/37/65 |
| Bakersfield 55/40/60/43/63 | Taft 54/42/61/45/64 | Arvin 55/38/63/38/65 |
| Lamont 56/38/63/37/65 | Pixley 56/33/63/36/64 | Tulare 56/32/61/34/64 |
| Woodlake 56/33/62/34/65 | Hanford 57/33/63/34/66 | Orosi 57/32/62/34/64 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Increasing clouds 45/65 |
Monday
Rain likely 48/66 |
Tuesday
Periods of rain 45/62 |
Wednesday
AM showers 38/59 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 36/59 |
Two Week Outlook: November 10 through November 16: This model shows a pattern which would be somewhat favorable for storms to move into northern California with central California being on its southern fringe. Expect temperatures to be below average.
November: Both the 30 and 90 day projections indicate a swath of below average rainfall from southern California eastward to Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Much of northern California is projected to have near average rainfall. Temperatures will remain marginally above average.
November, December, January: The 90 day model also projects lower than average precipitation from southern California through Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Northern and north/central California are projected to have near average precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph with gusts to near 20 mph possible, mainly along the west side. Winds tonight through Saturday night will be generally at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions. winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at around 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain: Here are a few storm totals from around the area: Bakersfield .27, Visalia .36, Fresno .14, Clovis .19, Madera .17, Stratford .18, arvin .10, porterville .17 and Delano .18.
Expect dry weather through at least Sunday. A large body of low pressure will develop off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, digging an impressive trough of low pressure southward all the way into southern California. Waves of low pressure and precipitation will spread over central California late Sunday and Monday and will last all the way through early Wednesday. This far out, rainfall totals for the valley look quite impressive with some models indicating between one and two inches along the east side of the valley from roughly Porterville northward with lighter amounts in Kern County. Several feet of snow are possible over the higher peaks of the Sierra Nevada. Could we have an early ski season this year?
Frost: Tonight’s results will be somewhat variable as it always is behind an exiting storm. Burn off time of cloud cover in mainly Tulare and Kern Counties will come into play along with local wind conditions, mixing, etc. It does appear, however, widespread 30s can be expected with colder locations in the lower 30s tonight and Friday morning with moderation due Saturday morning due to increasing cloud cover. The air mass is cold. The freezing level taken a short time ago was 4,800 feet. Even though this is a cold air mass, it’s not especially unusual, even for this early in the season. The good news is this will be just a two night event with above freezing conditions beginning Saturday and lasting through next week.
Nothing in the medium term points towards any particularly cold weather.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
33 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
33 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/38%, Porterville, 98%/45%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s Kern: Low to mid 40s. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: 40%, tomorrow 20%.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .72, Parlier, .64, Arvin .70, Porterville, .82, Delano .70.
Tomorrow, 90. Seven day soil temperature: Average soil temperature: Sky cover: Visalia 50% today, 70% Friday. Bakerfield 30% today, 80% Friday,
Stratford 65, Parlier 61, Arvin, 66, Porterville 66, Delano 65. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 71/46. Record Temperatures: 88/34
Heating Degree Days This Season. 64 -22. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno -.61, Monthly .,T -.61
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, -.31. Monthly, -.00 -.31
Average Temperature this month: 68.1 +3.5, Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0, Parlier,1 Arvin,2 , Belridge, 2, Shafter,1 Stratford,5 , Delano, 0 Porterville, 0 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:25, Sunset, 6:00, hours of daylight, 10:35
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 60 / 40 / 0.04 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 60 / 40 / 0.13 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 62 / 44 / 0.13 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 64 / 43 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 64 / 36 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 62 / 49 / 0.18 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 62 / 42 / 0.02 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1605 / 60 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 62 / 46 / 0.06 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1659 / 60 / 49 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 46 / T /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.05 0.27 36 3.86 508 0.76 13.45
MODESTO 0.07 0.31 52 2.85 475 0.60 12.27
MERCED 0.03 0.37 53 1.74 249 0.70 11.80
MADERA 0.02 0.17 35 0.57 119 0.48 10.79
FRESNO T 0.13 21 1.27 208 0.61 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 1.10 220 0.50 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.18 58 0.94 303 0.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.01 3 0.65 176 0.37 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 M M 0.13 2.20
SALINAS T 0.24 36 1.64 248 0.66 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.05 0.05 8 1.57 257 0.61 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.01 2 1.29 215 0.60 13.32
Next report: November 3 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.