November 4, 2022 afternoon report

November 4, 2022

The air, both at the surface and aloft, has warmed a great deal today. Midday temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 50s, which is about 4 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The balloon sounding indicates the air aloft is much warmer with the freezing level above Vandenburg AFB at 13,400 feet while further north at Oakland the sounding was 11,400 feet. Variable amounts of high clouds are moving from northwest to southeast across central California. These clouds are from very active weather over the Pacific Northwest. This weekend will transition us into a very wet pattern. it’s possible a few renegade showers could make it down the valley as far south as Fresno County Sunday.

As the first of two weather systems moves out of the main trough of low pressure and into central valley, rain will fairly rapidly spread southward during the morning hours. This storm does have strong dynamics and the potential to drop large amounts of precipitation along the Sierra Nevada with significant amounts on the valley floor. Rain will continue Saturday night then briefly break off into showers Tuesday morning with another surge of moisture moving through central California Tuesday and Tuesday night. I wouldn’t rule out isolated thunderstorms, especially embedded in the cold front Saturday and again Sunday. The action will finally begin to taper off early Wednesday morning. It currently looks like Wednesday afternoon will be dry.

A zone of high pressure aloft will build in from the west Wednesday night into Thursday, resulting in a dry pattern which will last into the following weekend.

Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight. Variable cloudiness Saturday and Saturday night. Mostly cloudy Sunday with an outside chance of a few showers, mainly from Fresno County north. A chance of showers Sunday evening, becoming likely after midnight. Rain Monday and Monday night, possibly locally heavy at times. Showers late Tuesday night and for a time Tuesday morning with rain later in the morning Tuesday, lasting into Tuesday night. Showers likely Tuesday night with a chance of showers Wednesday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and night. Mostly clear Thursday except in the south valley where it will remain mostly cloudy. Mostly clear Friday.

Short Term:

Madera 35/65/46/65	Reedley 35/64/48/65	Dinuba 34/64/48/64
Porterville 34/66/48/65	Lindsay 33/64/47/65	Delano 36/66/48/66
Bakersfield 45/64/52/67	Taft 44/64/54/68	Arvin 37/66/50/67
Lamont 38/67/50/66	Pixley 35/65/47/66	Tulare 33/64/46/65
Woodlake 35/65/46/64	Hanford 35/66/48/67	Orosi 35/64/47/65

Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 mph through Saturday and variable in nature. Near calm conditions can also be expected, especially during the nights and mornings. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts, increasing to 10 to 20 mph Sunday night with stronger gusts, especially from Fresno County north. Winds Monday will continue out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Rain: Since I’ve already discussed the potential timing of this next weather event, this time around I’ll focus on rainfall amounts for central California, and the possibilities are pretty impressive. From Sunday night through early Wednesday, the higher elevation of the Sierra Nevada could pick up 4 to 6 inches of rain in Mariposa and Madera Counties and 3 to 4 inches in Fresno and Tulare Counties. The foothills could pick up 2 to 4 inches. The east side of the valley, generally east of Highway 99, has the potential of picking up between 1 and 2 inches. The west side of the valley has the potential of picking up between .50 and 1.50. These blockbuster winter storms are always a tough call in Kern County, but even there between .33 and .75 is not out of the realm of possibility. Again, dry weather will return possibly as early as Wednesday afternoon next week and will remain dry through next weekend.

Frost: Most locations will be above freezing tonight. There will be in and out cloud cover. Also, some moderation has taken place today. Under ideal frost conditions, especially in Tulare County, coldest locations could dip down into the lower 30s for short durations. Above freezing conditions will prevail Sunday through Wednesday. The air mass behind this upcoming weather event appears to be very similar to the one we’re currently experiencing. It’s possible we could see low to mid 30s Thursday and Friday of next week. with a soaking wet valley floor and plenty of residual cloud cover, no worries from temperatures are anticipated. Medium range models also point towards a generally mild weather pattern.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root Creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: November 5 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.