November 4, 2022
In the short term, we will just observe variable amounts of cloud cover from time to time from a storm system moving through the Pacific Northwest. A strong westerly flow is currently steering all the action north of a California/Oregon border. There are changes afoot out there, however. A powerful Pacific storm will center just west of the Washington coast Sunday night then will develop a strong trough all the way into southern California Monday. as it does, precipitation will spread over central California, locally heavy at times and continuing Monday night. The second system will arrive Tuesday and will last into Wednesday with more rain and heavy amounts of snow in the Sierra Nevada. Showers will continue Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. All the models are indicating this storm will have strong dynamics and has a high potential for several feet of new snow along the Sierra. Latest estimates place this at 3 to 5 feet with possibly more from Yosemite north. Significant precipitation will fall over the lower elevations, also, as the foothills could pick up 3 to 5 inches. We’ll review valley potential for the rain discussion. Snow will initially start at 8,000 feet. By Wednesday, when the colder sector of the storm arrives, snow levels will drop to between 3,000 and 4,000 feet. With the structure of the storm such as it is, isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons if breaks develop in the cloud canopy. Showers will finally end later Wednesday night with dry weather Thursday as upper level high pressure begins to push in from the west, nudging the system to our east.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Saturday night. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. Cloudy Sunday night with a chance of showers after midnight. Rain Monday, possibly locally heavy at times, continuing Monday night. Showers Tuesday morning then rain Tuesday afternoon and night with a chance of thunderstorms. Showers Wednesday with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers diminishing Wednesday night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Thursday. Becoming mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/35/65/47/65 | Reedley 63/36/65/46/64 | Dinuba 63/34/65/46/64 |
| Porterville 64/34/65/48/66 | Lindsay 63/33/65/47/66 | Delano 64/36/65/48/65 |
| Bakersfield 62/42/64/50/66 | Taft 62/48/64/52/68 | Arvin 63/38/65/59/66 |
| Lamont 63/44/65/50/66 | Pixley 63/35/65/46/65 | Tulare 62/34/65/45/65 |
| Woodlake 63/34/64/49/64 | Hanford 63/35/65/49/66 | Orosi 62/34/65/48/66 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Rain 51/65 |
Tuesday
Rain 47/61 |
Wednesday
Showers 42/57 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 36/58 |
Friday
Mostly clear 35/58 |
Two Week Outlook: November 10 through November 16: This model shows a pattern which would be somewhat favorable for storms to move into northern California with central California being on its southern fringe. Expect temperatures to be below average.
November: Both the 30 and 90 day projections indicate a swath of below average rainfall from southern California eastward to Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Much of northern California is projected to have near average rainfall. Temperatures will remain marginally above average.
November, December, January: The 90 day model also projects lower than average precipitation from southern California through Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Northern and north/central California are projected to have near average precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or lesss than 12 mph through Saturday and variable in nature. Near calm conditions can also be expected, especially during the nights and mornings. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts, increasing to 10 to 20 mph Sunday night with stronger gusts, especially from Fresno County north. Winds Monday will continue out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Sunday. A strong Pacific storm will eventually engulf the entire state Monday and Tuesday. The dynamics of this system are such as we haven’t see for a while. Lift will produce several feet of snow along the Sierra Nevada and significant rain on the valley floor. Rain could show up later Sunday night, however Monday appears to be the best time frame from this juncture. Rain will be heavy at times. The second phase of this system will move in Tuesday with significant rain, continuing Tuesday night, breaking off into showers Wednesday. There’s also a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Dry weather will return Thursday and will continue for several days.
Current rainfall estimates are currently between 1 and 1.5 inches for the entire event along the eastern sector of the valley north of Kern County,
Between .50 to 1 inch along the west slide with .25 to .50 along the Kern County portion of the valley. Locally heavier amounts will be tallied in locations that get nailed by a thunderstorm. In the mountains, as much as four to five feet of new snow is possible up high with 3 to 5 inches of rain along the foothills.
On paper, this is a blockbuster. Hoping it all pans out.
Frost: This morning panned out pretty much as expected. Coldest locations as of 5:00am were at 32 at both Fowler and Lindsay and 33 at Cutler. Tonight will be similar with possible in and out cloud cover from systems passing to our north.
Coldest locations tonight will generally range from 32 to 33 degrees with most locations in the mid to upper 30s.
Increasing cloud cover Sunday morning will result in above freezing conditions. Above freezing conditions will continue through at least Wednesday. The air mass swinging in behind the upcoming storm is relatively cold and could drop temperatures into the low to mid 30s Thursday and Friday mornings. As of now, the combination of lingering cloud cover and the fact that this is not a critically cold air mass will keep most locations above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
31 |
| Root Creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA%, Porterville, 98%/54%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s Kern: Low to mid 40s. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: 40%, tomorrow 20%.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .69, Parlier, .59, Arvin .73, Porterville, .63, Delano .69.
Tomorrow, 70. Seven day soil temperature: Average soil temperature: Sky cover: Visalia 60% today, 70% Friday. Bakerfield 30% today, 80% Friday,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures Stratford 65, Parlier 61, Arvin, 65, Porterville 64, Delano 65. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 70/46. Record Temperatures: 86/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 97.0 -9.0. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .13 .Ave .61, Season, Monthly ..13 -.61
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .18, Ave .31. Monthly, -.00 -.31
Average Temperature this month: 53.8+ 3.9, Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0, Parlier,1 Arvin,2 , Belridge, 2, Shafter,1 Stratford,5 , Delano, 0 Porterville, 0 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:27, Sunset, 6:02, hours of daylight, 10:35
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 61 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 59 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 58 / 43 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 60 / 41 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 61 / 41 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 49 / 45 / 0.09 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 58 / 41 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 36 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 59 / 44 / 0.11 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 54 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.05 0.27 36 3.86 508 0.76 13.45
MODESTO 0.07 0.31 52 2.85 475 0.60 12.27
MERCED 0.03 0.37 53 1.74 249 0.70 11.80
MADERA 0.02 0.17 35 0.57 119 0.48 10.79
FRESNO T 0.13 21 1.27 208 0.61 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 1.10 220 0.50 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.18 58 0.94 303 0.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.01 3 0.65 176 0.37 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 M M 0.13 2.20
SALINAS T 0.24 36 1.64 248 0.66 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.05 0.05 8 1.57 257 0.61 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.01 2 1.29 215 0.60 13.32
Next report: November 4 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.