November 7, 2022 afternoon report

November 7, 2022

A cold front is inching its way down the valley this afternoon. It has been raining steadily from Kings County and northern Tulare County north with light showers south of that line. Lemoore has picked up .21. Fresno .32. del Rey .32, Kettleman Hills .15. Heavy amounts of precipitation have been occurring up and down the Sierra Nevada where weather locations from Fresno County north have picked up between 1 and 2 inches. The foothills and mountains of Tulare County have picked up between a third to upwards of three-quarters of an inch. The front will slowly move eastward this afternoon then a lull in the action will take place for a time tonight before the parent low with its pool of cold air arrives later tonight and Tuesday morning. Forecast models show the center of circulation just to the west of San Francisco Tuesday meaning the coldest and most unstable portion of the storm will be overhead Tuesday afternoon and well into Wednesday. Numerous showers and the possibility of isolated thunderstorms will commence, especially if there are breaks in the cloud deck. That would allow the ground to warm, sending up warm currents of air skyward. Any thunderstorms would be accompanied by small hail and locally heavy rain. The low will drag across the northern portion of the state Wednesday, spreading precipitation over central and southern California. By Wednesday evening, the back side of the storm will move across the Sierra Nevada, putting an end to this event. Dry weather is forecast for Thursday through Friday night. There are two more weather systems to deal with. One is on Saturday and another Monday. each of these pales in comparison to the current storm, spreading light showers as far south as Merced County with a slight chance further south. The air mass behind this system has its origins in the Gulf of Alaska, so areas of frost will be likely Thursday and Friday mornings which is discussed below.

Forecast: Periods of showers tonight. Numerous showers Tuesday and Tuesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Showers Wednesday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Friday night. Variable cloudiness at times Saturday through Monday with a small chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County north Saturday through Saturday night. A chance of light showers from mainly Merced County north Monday.

Short Term:

Madera 48/61/44/58	Reedley 48/60/43/57	Dinuba 46/60/45/57
Porterville 48/63/44/57	Lindsay 46/61/43/58	Delano 48/62/44/67
Bakersfield 51/63/47/57	Taft 52/63/48/56	Arvin 48/64/48/56
Lamont 50/64/47/56	Pixley 47/61/47/58	Tulare 46/60/45/57
Woodlake 46/61/44/57	Hanford 48/62/47/58	Orosi 45/60/44/57

Wind Discussion: winds tonight will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts near showers. Winds Tuesday through Wednesday will be generally variable to 15 mph with gusts to near 20 mph possible in the vicinity of showers or isolated thunderstorms. Winds later Wednesday night and Thursday will be no more than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

Rain: Rainfall amounts from Kings County and northern Tulare county northward are at generally .20 upwards to about .33. this precipitation has been following a slow moving cold front which is moving into the south valley at this hour. Behind the front, showers taper off and will do so through the evening hours. Rain will again spread over the valley Tuesday morning, breaking off into showers Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Dry weather will return Wednesday night through Friday night. It still appears we’ll measure between one and one and a half inches of rain along the eastern flank of the valley north of Kern County with between a half and one-inch along the west side and between .25 and .50 over the valley portion of Kern County. Two weak systems will affect the northern half of California: one Saturday and one Monday. these systems will be pretty weak but will result in a chance of light showers as far south as Fresno County.

Frost: The air mass swinging in behind the current storm will be cold but not critically so. Models have been consistent on low to mid 30s Thursday and Friday mornings and possibly Saturday and Sunday. Thursday morning’s conditions will be determined primarily by cloud cover as no doubt upslope clouds will bank up against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the valley facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County. If we receive the blessing of cloud cover Thursday morning, readings will only dip into the upper 30s to the lower 40s with areas of clear skies dipping into the low to mid 30s. Coldest locations will dip into the upper 20s for short durations. Conditions Friday and possibly Saturday will see temperatures in the low to mid 30s with those cold spots possibly chilling into the upper 20s for short durations. By Monday, most locations will cool into the mid to upper 20s. at least some cloud cover will be overhead during the weekend from weather systems sliding through northern California.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root Creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: November 8 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.