November 10, 2022
Suddenly it feels a bit like winter this morning as our first locations to slide below freezing have done so. Both Exeter and Lindsay fell to 31 while Sanger hit 32 with most other locations between 33 and 37. Models this morning are sort of a hodge podge of weak features out there. A narrow ridge of weak high pressure is now moving into California. The flow aloft is out of the north/northwest which continues to pump chilly air in aloft. Behind the ridge is a weak trough of low pressure moving out of the Gulf of Alaska. The southern portion of this trough will pinch off, forming a closed low circulation which will move through Oregon and northeast California then slide into western Nevada early Saturday morning. This system could theoretically result in snow showers up high but at this point nothing is anticicpated for the valley floor. It could throw enough cloud cover over the valley to moderate temperatures some on Saturday morning, however the ramifications of this little system will be quite meager.
Behind this system is a broader area of upper level high pressure which will build northward, reaching into British Columbia. this will turn the winds aloft northeasterly but will not move far enough to the north to bring unusually cold weather. It will, however, result in a continuation of cool days and cold nights with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 30s.
Suddenly, there are pockets of fog out there and with the ground all nice and wet and a warm air inversion developing, fog will be on the increase during the later evening and early morning hours. It’s still a bit early in the season for a full fledged fog regime.
There’s nothing really out there that would flip us back into a wet weather pattern for the foreseeable future. So outside of areas of night and morning valley fog and hazy afternoons, look for temperatures to be below average for the next week or so along with pleasant afternoons.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies with areas of night and morning fog through Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday with areas of night and morning fog. Mostly clear Sunday through Thursday, again with areas of night and morning fog. Look for cool days and chilly nights to continue.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/33/61/33/61 | Reedley 59/33/60/32/61 | Dinuba 57/32/61/32/61 |
| Porterville 58/33/60/33/61 | Lindsay 58/31/60/32/61 | Delano 59/34/61/33/61 |
| Bakersfield 57/39/59/40/59 | Taft 56/41/59/41/60 | Arvin 59/32/60/33/61 |
| Lamont 59/35/60/34/61 | Pixley 58/33/61/33/61 | Tulare 58/32/60/32/61 |
| Woodlake 59/33/60/33/61 | Hanford 58/34/61/33/61 | Orosi 60/32/61/32/60 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Patchy fog/mostly clea 34/61 |
Monday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/58 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 34/60 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 34/61 |
Thursday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/61 |
Two Week Outlook: November 17 through November 23: This model shows a rather chilly northwest flow into California, maintaining below average temperatures. It also indicates above average precipitation over the northern half of California and doesn’t rule out a chance of showers further south.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 5mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds later tonight through Sunday will generally be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost: Exeter and Lindsay each fell to 31 as of 5:00 for the coldest temperatures I could find while Sanger fell to 32. Most other locations were between 33 and 36. Last night was pretty much a precursor to a string of nights coming up here. The only morning which could theoretically be a bit warmer will be Sunday due to a weak upper air disturbance moving through western Nevada which could throw some clouds over the district. We’re deep enough in the season now where the sun angle is low in the midday sky and has a more difficult time warming up the atmosphere, so look for temperatures well down into the 30s each night going forward. it’s possible coldest locations could briefly touch the upper 20s, however those locations will be few and far between. Most locations will drop to 34 to 36 each night with hillside locations in the upper 30s and lower 40s. still nothing on models suggesting a particularly cold pattern on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
33 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
33 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/54% Porterville, 99%/59%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 70%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford 46 Parlier 39 Arvin 51 Porterville 42 Delano 44
Sky cover: Visalia 60% today 70% Friday Bakersfield 30% today 80% Friday,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 57, Arvin 63, Porterville 60, Delano 61 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44 Record Temperatures: 83/35
Heating Degree Days This Season. 178 +20 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .80, 82% of average, Monthly .80
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 127% of average, Monthly: .41
Average Temperature This Month: 52.0 -5.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 30, Parlier 45, Arvin 24 , Belridge 34, Shafter 28, Stratford 54, Delano 36, Porterville 42 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:33, Sunset, 4:52, hours of daylight, 10:21
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 61 / 41 / 0.05 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 52 / 45 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 46 / 0.03 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 41 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 36 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 59 / 49 / 0.15 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 42 / 0.23 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 55 / 43 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 43 / 0.10 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 57 / 44 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 59 / 41 / 0.19 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.01 1.24 119 4.32 415 1.04 13.45
MODESTO 0.04 1.19 149 3.06 383 0.80 12.27
MERCED 0.04 0.99 105 1.99 212 0.94 11.80
MADERA T 0.50 76 0.65 98 0.66 10.79
FRESNO 0.01 0.66 83 1.57 196 0.80 10.99
HANFORD T 0.59 94 1.24 197 0.63 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.13 0.66 161 0.95 232 0.41 6.36
BISHOP T 0.46 107 0.78 181 0.43 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 14 M M 0.14 2.20
SALINAS 0.06 0.72 80 2.19 243 0.90 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.05 0.99 121 1.40 171 0.82 13.32
Next report: November 10 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.