November 12, 2022
Temperatures at midday are running between 1 and 3 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Despite this, temperatures will remain below average. The balloon sounding earlier today above Oakland was 7,100 feet, illustrating the chilly air mass over California. There is also a weak warm air inversion above the valley floor which will continue to favor dense fog during the late night/early morning hours up and down the center of the valley north of Kern County. All areas will see the typical winter time hazy afternoon skies but with an abundance of sunshine.
A weak low moved through Oregon last night and is now moving into northwest Nevada. By Sunday evening, the low will be in southern Nevada or northwest Arizona, resulting in a brief off shore flow. That flow will shove more cold air into the valley from the interior west. A second low will move down the coast to near San Francisco by Sunday night. This feature is also dry. As soon as it moves out of the picture, an upper high over the eastern Pacific will build a ridge into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, generating a fairly strong off shore flow with yet another shot of relatively cold air moving down the valley. All this will result in a continuation of below average temperatures. Typically, these off shore flows do not disturb the air mass in the lower few thousand feet of the atmosphere. the Sierra Nevada tends to block these winds, squeezing them down into southern California, in part responsible for Santa Ana winds.
Models are beginning to show a pattern for early to mid next week. As the high flattens out, it will create first a northwesterly flow then a westerly flow which would bring warmer air in aloft.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Wednesday with areas of later night and morning fog, mainly up the center of the valley, and with hazy afternoons. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday with areas of night and morning fog and hazy afternoon sunshine.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/58/32/61 | Reedley 33/58/32/60 | Dinuba 37/57/31/61 |
| Porterville 32/58/32/62 | Lindsay 31/58/31/61 | Delano 33/59/32/60 |
| Bakersfield 42/57/39/62 | Taft 43/56/39/62 | Arvin 31/58/30/62 |
| Lamont 36/58/35/61 | Pixley 32/57/31/63 | Tulare 31/57/31/62 |
| Woodlake 33/58/32/61 | Hanford 34/57/32/61 | Orosi 32/57/31/62 |
Wind Discussion: Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday. Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: The air mass both at the surface and aloft remains quite chilly for mid November. The balloon sounding above Oakland this morning was just 7,100 feet and, considering there are no storms anywhere near central California, that freezing level is quite low. Air temperatures are in the upper 50s at most locations, which is 1 to 3 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Dew points are in the lower 40s, quite reminiscent of the past few nights. Widespread low to mid 30s are likely again tonight with coldest regions brushing with the upper 20s.
The inversion tonight will be fairly tight with temperatures at 34 feet generally from 5 to 8 degrees warmer.
On Sunday, a weak weather system over the Great Basin will inject another shot of cold air into central California, so highs Sunday will not reach the 60 degree mark. I do look for more locations to be at or slightly be freezing Monday morning with possible slightly lower dew points. Even so, the lion’s share of locations will still chill into the low to mid 30s with hillsides well above freezing. Low to mid 30s can be expected each night through Saturday. We might inch our way into a milder pattern by Monday or Tuesday of next week as the dominant north/northeast flow gives way to more of a northwest flow…possibly a westerly flow by the middle of next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
34 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
34 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
33 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
34 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 13 morning
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