November 16, 2022
The current altimeter reading at Salt Lake City is 30.58 inches of mercury while at LAX the current pressure is 30.19. That’s almost a .40 difference from one location to another. This is a large difference and is the main cause of the Santa Ana winds in southern California. Occasionally, these winds make it down into the extreme south valley and that is the case this morning. Winds at the bottom of the Grapevine are sustained at 20, gusting to 35 mph while winds elsewhere in the south valley are dead calm. These winds will weaken slowly later in the day as the pressure differences begin to weaken.
In the big picture, a large ridge of upper level high pressure has built a ridge clear up into the Gulf of Alaska. Modified arctic air is plunging into the interior west, mainly into the Rockies, leaving California pretty much unscathed. The air mass that has been stuck on the valley floor for days and days now will remain in place until we get a storm system strong enough to break up the inversion above the valley floor. Temperatures will continue to warm into the low to mid 60s for highs and low to mid 30s for lows with areas of frost right through the weekend and more than likely beyond.
Forecast: Areas of late night and morning fog, mainly towards the center and west side of the valley. Otherwise, it will be mostly clear through Saturday. The same for the remainder of the week through Wednesday: hazy night and morning fog with some afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/32/64/33/62 | Reedley 65/33/65/32/63 | Dinuba 64/31/64/32/63 |
| Porterville 66/32/65/32/63 | Lindsay 64/31/64/31/62 | Delano 66/33/65/33/62 |
| Bakersfield 68/41/65/42/61 | Taft 65/43/65/44/62 | Arvin 68/34/64/34/63 |
| Lamont 67/35/64/35/63 | Pixley 66/32/65/33/61 | Tulare 64/31/64/31/60 |
| Woodlake 65/32/65/33/61 | Hanford 65/33/65/32/62 | Orosi 64/31/64/32/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Am fog/pm sun 33/62 |
Sunday
Am fog/pm sun 32/65 |
Monday
Am fog/pm sun 33/64 |
Tuesday
Am fog/pm sun 33/64 |
Wednesday
Am fog/pm sun 34/63 |
Two Week Outlook: November 23 through November 29 This model shows a completely different pattern. it depicts a decent chance of rain for both northern and central California. The flow aloft will be out of the west/northwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 5mph with locally stronger gusts. Also, expect locally strong, gusty winds to near 40 mph at times near the base of the Grapevine and locally elsewhere near the base of the Tehachapi. These winds will slowly decrease as pressure patterns between the interior and the coast begin to relax. Winds later tonight through Saturday will generally be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions. These winds will slowly decrease as pressure patterns between the interior and the coast begin to relax.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost: As of 5:30 this morning, the coldest locations I could find was 31 at both Fowler and Lindcove. Most other locations were between 32 and 36 degrees. Expect the same old thing tonight and for the next handful of nights. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s during the day, but with afternoon dew points in the upper 30s to the lower 40s, coupled with the long nights, many locations will be near the freezing mark. Coldest locations will again be in the low 30s with a chance of upper 20s in sheltered river bottom type locations. This general forecast will last through at least Sunday as the warm air inversion above the valley floor has a layer of cool air at the bottom.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
34 |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
Af |
Marcopa
32 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 94%/47% Porterville, 99%/41%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 70%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford 55 Parlier 54 Arvin 47 Porterville 50 Delano 49
Soil temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 55, Arvin 60, Porterville 55, Delano 59 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 90% today 90% Bakersfield 90% today 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 57, Arvin 61, Porterville 58, Delano 55 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 65/42 Record Temperatures: 81/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 276 +53 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 70% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 135% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 50.6 -5.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 88, Parlier 121, Arvin 70 , Belridge 102, Shafter 91, Stratford 127, Delano 101, Porterville 114 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:39, Sunset, 4:48, hours of daylight, 10:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 64 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 100 4.32 348 1.24 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 125 3.06 322 0.95 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 91 1.99 183 1.09 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 63 0.65 81 0.80 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 70 1.57 167 0.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 82 1.24 172 0.72 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 135 0.95 194 0.49 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 96 0.78 163 0.48 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 13 M M 0.16 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 135 2.19 203 1.08 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 78 1.58 174 0.91 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 99 1.40 140 1.00 13.32
Next report: November 16 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.