November 17, 2022
The Santa Ana wind configuration weakened overnight, but not before the strong off shore flow lowered dewpoints somewhat, mainly in Kern County. Even north of Kern County, dew points are a few degrees lower, allowing subfreezing temperatures in more areas than previous nights. As of 5:30 this morning, coldest locations were down to 29 degrees with most locations between 30 and 35. Currently, high pressure is very strong from off the California coast with a ridge jutting northward into the Gulf of Alaska. Arctic air continues to plunge into much of the country. Thankfully, California is not one of the areas affected. Beginning Friday, the high will begin to bulge into the northern Rockies, once again turning the winds aloft out of the northeast. This will briefly cause an increase in the Santa Ana winds again. However, over the weekend a fundamental change will occur as the high breaks down over its northern flank, it will allow a westerly flow to begin. By late Monday into Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Northern California will have a pretty good shot at some showers, but any measurable rain will likely stay north of a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. After Tuesday, a new high will build right over California for another period of dry weather. medium range models for the end of the month and into early December have been showing an active pattern for much of California. Some models show an atmospheric river of air moving right into northern California. It will be interesting to see if these models pan out or if the drought pattern returns.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through tonight with patchy morning fog. Mostly clear Friday through Sunday night. Variable cloudiness Monday through Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night with patchy morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/32/62/31/63 | Reedley 64/31/62/32/63 | Dinuba 64/31/62/31/62 |
| Porterville 66/31/32/61/63 | Lindsay 65/30/63/30/64 | Delano 66/32/62/32/63 |
| Bakersfield 67/41/64/41/64 | Taft 66/43/61/41/64 | Arvin 67/32/62/32/63 |
| Lamont 66/34/62/33/63 | Pixley 67/32/64/32/64 | Tulare 64/31/63/30/63 |
| Woodlake 64/31/62/31/63 | Hanford 66/32/62/32/62 | Orosi 64/31/62/31/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Mostly clear 33/65 |
Monday
Variable clouds 36/65 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog 36/64 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog 35/64 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 37/64 |
Two Week Outlook: November 23 through November 29 This model shows a completely different pattern. it depicts a decent chance of rain for both northern and central California. The flow aloft will be out of the west/northwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 5mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds later tonight through Sunday will generally be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: From late Monday into Tuesday, showers will spread into northern California, possibly affecting Merced County but that’s all. Models show dry weather for the next five days beginning Tuesday, but have been trending towards wet weather for the last few days of November and into early December. Some are showing an AR into northern and central California. It’ll be interesting to see if models hold or revert back to a dry pattern.
Frost: The Santa Ana winds of the past few days have lowered dew points a tad. This allowed temperatures this morning to drop a degree or two below previous mornings. Porterville had a reading of 29 this morning with most locations between 30 and 35. The Santa Anas have weakened and are no longer blowing through the south valley. As a result, dew points may rise back into the 40s in most areas this afternoon. Another wild card for tonight is potential cloud cover. Satellite imagery is showing a decent batch of clouds off shore and moving towards the coast. If these clouds hold together, they could modify temperatures tonight. However, I feel it’s prudent to forecast readings where they’ve been the past several nights in case these clouds evaporate or reach central California too late. Basically, variations on this same old model turn up through Saturday, meaning generally low to mid 30s through the weekend. A system will move into northern California later Monday into Tuesday, changing the flow pattern from off shore to on shore which theoretically would move dew points up for above freezing temperatures throughout the district.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
3 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 94%/36% Porterville, 99%/38%
Midafternoon dew points: Low Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 70%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford 56 Parlier 45 Arvin 51 Porterville 51 Delano 51
Soil temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 55, Arvin 59 Porterville 54, Delano 59 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 90% today 90% Bakersfield 90% today 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 57, Arvin 61, Porterville 58, Delano 55 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 64/42 Record Temperatures: 81/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 291 +56 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 67% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 127% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 50.6 -5.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 99, Parlier 135, Arvin 82 , Belridge 115, Shafter 104, Stratford 140, Delano 115, Porterville 125 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:40, Sunset, 4:48, hours of daylight, 10:09
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 66 / 33 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1548 / 65 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 93 4.32 325 1.33 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 117 3.06 300 1.02 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 86 1.99 173 1.15 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 58 M M 0.86 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 67 1.57 159 0.99 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 77 1.24 161 0.77 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 127 0.95 183 0.52 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 92 0.78 156 0.50 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 13 M M 0.16 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 126 2.19 189 1.16 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 74 1.58 165 0.96 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 93 1.40 131 1.07 13.32
Next report: November 17 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.