I remember last year and how we had just a handful of frost nights. Here it is 2022 and every morning so far has been a frost night, at least at the colder locations. That’s 18 days in a row. What a difference a year makes. I don’t see much change in this pattern through at least Monday. currently, a wave of low pressure followed by an arctic air mass is surging into the interior west. The far western flank of this low is moving through California and is marked by a band of mid and high-level clouds currently moving through now. Very strong high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, are following this wave. The current barometric pressure at Boise, Idaho is 30.49 inches of mercury while at LAX the current reading is 29.99. The Santa Ana wind configuration of earlier this week is returning, so we may see some strong winds in the south valley, especially today and Saturday. There will be a slight change coming up Monday into Tuesday. The winds aloft which are currently out of the northeast will be replaced by a weak westerly flow which may impact dew points. Those dew points are quite low now due to the environment’s dryness. There is still nothing on short or medium range models suggesting a pattern that would bring precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy for a time this morning. Clearing this afternoon. Mostly clear tonight through Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Friday with patchy night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/31/64/32/64 | Reedley 63/31/64/31/65 | Dinuba 61/30/64/31/64 |
| Porterville 64/30/64/31/65 | Lindsay 63/29/64/30/65 | Delano 63/32/64/32/65 |
| Bakersfield 63/40/65/40/66 | Taft 63/43/64/43/65 | Arvin 64/36/64/37/65 |
| Lamont 65/35/65/36/66 | Pixley 63/31/64/31/65 | Tulare 62/30/63/30/64 |
| Woodlake 63/31/64/31/64 | Hanford 63/32/64/31/64 | Orosi 62/30/64/30/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Mostly clear 32/65 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 33/65 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 34/64 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 35/65 |
Friday
Mostly clear 37/68 |
Two Week Outlook: November 25 through December 1: This model shows a completely different pattern. it depicts a decent chance of rain for both northern and central California. The flow aloft will be out of the west/northwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 5mph with locally stronger gusts. A strong Santa Ana wind configuration will take place late today through Saturday. Like earlier this week, some of these winds could make it down to the extreme south valley. This is always a toss of the dice, but the configuration would certainly favor it. Wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph could be possible, especially at the bottom of the Grapevine and locally elsewhere. The greatest risk of this occurring will be tonight through Saturday morning. Winds later Saturday through Monday will generally be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to ten days.
Frost: Partial cloud cover helped a bit last night in moderating temperatures. Even so, coldest locations are at or slightly below freezing. With generally clear skies tonight and the next few nights, expect widespread low to mid 30s each night through at least Monday. a strong Santa Ana wind configuration is taking place today which could lower dew points even more, especially if they make it down to the valley portion of Kern County. I want to take a wait and see approach to this and watch dew points the next few days. For now, I’ll simply go with the status quo, which has been with us since the first of the month.
A westerly flow will begin later Monday and Tuesday which will turn the off shore flow onshore. This may bring dew points up somewhat. I’ve found over the years, however, that it takes more than just winds aloft or an off shore flow to rid the valley of an air mass.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 94%/36% Porterville, 99%/38%
Midafternoon dew points: Low Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 70%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford 56 Parlier 46 Arvin 51 Porterville 52 Delano 52
Soil temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 55, Arvin 54 Porterville 54, Delano 53 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 70% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 60% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 54, Arvin 59, Porterville 54, Delano 55 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 64/42 Record Temperatures: 80/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 306 +59 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 65% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 102% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 50.5 -5.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 110, Parlier 149, Arvin 92 , Belridge 127, Shafter 118, Stratford 152, Delano 128, Porterville 143 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:41, Sunset, 4:47, hours of daylight, 10:09
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 65 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 68 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 69 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 68 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 90 4.32 313 1.38 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 113 3.06 291 1.05 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 83 1.99 167 1.19 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 56 M M 0.89 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 65 1.57 154 1.02 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 75 1.24 157 0.79 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 122 0.95 176 0.54 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 90 0.78 153 0.51 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 12 M M 0.17 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 122 2.19 183 1.20 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 72 1.58 160 0.99 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 89 1.40 126 1.11 13.32
Next report: November 18 afternoon
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