November 19, 2022
The latest Santa Ana wind event is well underway. Winds at Sandburg near the top of the Grapevine are out of the northeast at 32, gusting to 47. At the bottom of the Grapevine, at the CHP office, winds are southerly at 15 mph. This isn’t much, but it does illustrate that these winds are trying to reach the valley floor. The current altimeter reading at Salt Lake City is 30.43 inches of mercury while at LAX the current report is 30.01.
High pressure currently covers both the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain region. The high will weaken over its northern flank Monday, but it will have a subtle change. The off shore flow which has been dominant this month will turn onshore for a change. This may help dew points to begin to rise. However, blended model information this morning indicates widespread low to mid 30s continuing through the middle of the week. it also points out a high of 66 on Thanksgiving Day then into the lower 70s Friday through Sunday.
Models are still at war regarding conditions for the end of the month and into early December. Some show rain returning to central California while others show a continuation of a blocking ridge pattern, keeping us dry.
Forecast: Outside of patchy late night and early morning fog, it will be mostly clear but hazy through Tuesday night. The same story will play out from Tuesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/31/64/32/63 | Reedley 65/32/64/32/63 | Dinuba 63/30/64/31/63 |
| Porterville 65/31/64/31/64 | Lindsay 64/30/64/30/63 | Delano 65/32/65/32/63 |
| Bakersfield 65/39/64/40/63 | Taft 64/42/64/42/63 | Arvin 66/37/66/36/63 |
| Lamont 65/35/65/35/64 | Pixley 65/32/65/31/64 | Tulare 63/30/63/31/63 |
| Woodlake 64/31/64/31/64 | Hanford 65/32/65/33/63 | Orosi 64/30/64/31/64 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 32/64 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 33/65 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 34/66 |
Friday
Mostly clear 37/70 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 37/72 |
Two Week Outlook: November 25 through December 1: This model shows a completely different pattern. it depicts a decent chance of rain for both northern and central California. The flow aloft will be out of the west/northwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: North of Kern County, winds will be generally less than 8 mph late afternoons and evenings with periods of near calm conditions. During the night and morning hours, winds will be light to near calm. We have another Santa Ana wind event underway. Some of these winds have already leaked to the bottom of the Grapevine, however nothing noteworthy has occurred as of yet. There is, though, a legitimate threat of locally strong winds possibly gusting up to 40 to 50 mph near the bottom of the Grapevine and locally elsewhere through tonight. These winds should end sunday as pressure differences begin to equalize.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to ten days.
Frost: Madera, Sanger, and Exeter each had a low of 29 degrees as of 5:30 this morning. A number of locations were in the low 30s. There were a few above freezing locations, primarily in Kern County. Widespread low to mid 30s can be expected tonight and again Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. We have yet another Santa Ana wind event occurring which may mix down some drier air to the valley floor. This may impact low temperatures going forward. For now, however, we’ll maintain low to mid 30s with the coldest low lying regions brushing with the upper 20s. beginning Monday, the winds aloft will suddenly become westerly, or on shore. This does mean more moisture aloft, however it’s questionable whether any of that moisture will work its way down to the valley floor. Blended model information shows highs during the second half of the Thanksgiving weekend into the lower 70s, which would certainly help bring up overnight low temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 91%/38% Porterville, 97%/39%
Midafternoon dew points: Low Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield:
Today 90% tomorrow 90%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford 58 Parlier 56 Arvin 54 Porterville 52 Delano 51
Soil temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 54, Arvin 58 Porterville 54, Delano 53 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 70% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 60% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 54, Arvin 59, Porterville 54,
Delano 55 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41 Record Temperatures: 83/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 323 +63 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 63% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 118% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 50.4 -5.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1 st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 121, Parlier 161, Arvin 102 ,
Belridge 140, Shafter 130, Stratford 164, Delano 141, Porterville 164 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:42, Sunset, 4:47, hours of daylight, 10:06
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 62 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30 th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 87 4.32 302 1.43 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 109 3.06 281 1.09 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 81 1.99 163 1.22 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 54 0.65 70 0.93 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 63 1.57 150 1.05 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 73 1.24 153 0.81 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 118 0.95 170 0.56 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 88 0.78 150 0.52 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 12 M M 0.17 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 118 2.19 177 1.24 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 70 1.58 155 1.02 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 86 1.40 122 1.15 13.32
Next report: November 19 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.