November 20, 2022
Strong upper level high pressure is virtually right overhead this afternoon. Dew points over the Kern County mountains have fallen to near 0 in some cases. Some of this very dry air has mixed down to the surface of the San Joaquin Valley and so the next couple of nights will be chillier than we’ve been accustomed to. More in the frost discussion below.
Over the next 72 hours, the high will build a ridge northeastward into the Pacific Northwest and Canada. This will efficiently block Pacific storms that are lurking over the mid Pacific Ocean. There is some encouragement about the pattern for next week, however. The GFS model has been hinting at a strong trough of low pressure moving through about the 29th with significant rain and mountain snow. too many times I’ve seen encouraging model information only to be disappointed by the return of a blocking ridge pattern, so we’ll see.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Wednesday with patchy late night and morning fog. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday with patchy late night and early morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 28/64/28/65 | Reedley 30/64/29/64 | Dinuba 29/63/29/65 |
| Porterville 28/65/28/65 | Lindsay 27/64/27/65 | Delano 30/64/30/66 |
| Bakersfield 38/63/38/65 | Taft 42/62/43/64 | Arvin 32/66/32/67 |
| Lamont 31/64/32/66 | Pixley 29/65/29/66 | Tulare 28/63/28/64 |
| Woodlake 29/65/29//66 | Hanford 30/63/30/65 | Orosi 29/64/29/65 |
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. During the night through midmorning hours, winds will be generally less than 5 mph with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather for the next week. nothing solid yet, but, one of my better models has been hinting at a strong tropical depression moving through around the 29th. It looks nice on paper, so keep your fingers crossed.
Frost: Dew points have sunk to near 0 in some places over the Kern County mountains. Some of that very, very dry air is leaching into the valley where conditions were already dry. As of midday, Bakersfield was reporting a dew point of 30, Hanford and Visalia 33, Porterville 35, and Fresno 32. These dew points are the lowest we’ve contended with this season and, like last night, more locations will drop below freezing. The coldest I could find last night was 27 at Jasmine and McFarland. The valley has completely dried up from that storm of a few weeks ago. Add to that dry air mixing down from the off shore flow of late. We will have fairly strong inversion, however, with temperatures at 34 feet from 5 to 8 degrees warmer. Similar conditions can be expected through Wednesday morning. high resolution models show conditions warming up beginning Thanksgiving Day and that may be true of daytime highs, but I’ve learned over the years that an exchange of air masses is necessary to move temperatures at night above the freezing mark. One piece of good news is that there’s no pattern on the horizon that would result in critically low temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
27 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
27 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
27 |
| Arvin
31 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
29 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
29 |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 21 morning
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