November 20, 2022
The Santa Ana wind conditions have mixed slightly drier air down to the valley floor, allowing the atmosphere to radiate its heat skyward during the night. As a result, a number of locations are a bit colder this morning. Several locations had reached into the upper 20s as of 6:00am. More in the frost discussion below. Upper level high pressure is directly above us this morning and it will essentially be anchored over the Pacific Ocean and the western US for the coming week. the flow aloft will become out of the west/northwest as the week wears on, ending the off shore flow. Theoretically, this would bring dew points up somewhat. However, experience has taught me that once an air mass is in place under strong high pressure that it will remain until a low pressure system strong enough finally breaks the inversion.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Thursday night with patchy night and morning fog and continued hazy. Mostly clear skies will continue Friday through Sunday with patchy fog and continued hazy.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/29/63/30/65 | Reedley 66/30/63/31/66 | Dinuba 64/30/63/30/65 |
| Porterville 65/29/64/29/64 | Lindsay 65/29/63/29/64 | Delano 66/31/63/31/65 |
| Bakersfield 65/39/65/39/64 | Taft 64/33/63/43/63 | Arvin 67/34/67/35/66 |
| Lamont 66/36/65/36/65 | Pixley 66/30/66//31/65 | Tulare 64/29/64/30/64 |
| Woodlake 64/30/65/30/65 | Hanford 65/31/65//31/66 | Orosi 64/30/63/30/64 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 31/65 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 32/67 |
Friday
Mostly clear 35/69 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 35/72 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 35/71 |
Two Week Outlook: November 27 through December 3: This model shows a completely different pattern. it depicts a decent chance of rain for both northern and central California. The flow aloft will be out of the west/northwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. During the night through midmorning hours, winds will be generally less than 5 mph with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to ten days.
Frost: The Santa Ana winds over the past 24 hours mixed down drier air onto the valley floor, thus a number of locations made it into the upper 20s. Madera, McFarland, Maricopa chilled down to 28 last night while Fowler, Exeter, Porterville, and Lindsay chilled down to 29. All other locations were in the low to mid 30s. I see no reason why I shouldn’t lower numbers down to those levels tonight. As each day goes by, the valley becomes drier. The winds aloft are finally turning westerly which theoretically would allow dew points to slowly rise. However, experience has taught me that once the lower level dries out, very little change takes place from night to night. High resolution models show a fairly significant warming trend starting Thanksgiving Day with temperatures possibly in the lower 70s Friday through Sunday. This would tend to drag up overnight lows a tad. For now I’m taking a wait and see attitude.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA% Porterville, 100%/38%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 90%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .58 Parlier, .46 Arvin .55 Porterville .52 Delano .50
Soil temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 54, Arvin 57 Porterville .53, Delano 53 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 70% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 60% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 54, Arvin 59, Porterville 54, Delano 55 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41 Record Temperatures: 80/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 339 +66 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 62% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 114% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 50.3 -4.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 131, Parlier 175, Arvin 114 , Belridge 153, Shafter 144, Stratford 177, Delano 155, Porterville 168 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:43, Sunset, 4:46, hours of daylight, 10:05
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 65 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 84 4.32 292 1.48 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 105 3.06 271 1.13 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 79 1.99 158 1.26 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 52 0.65 68 0.96 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 62 1.57 147 1.07 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 71 1.24 149 0.83 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 114 0.95 164 0.58 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 87 0.78 147 0.53 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 12 M M 0.17 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 113 2.19 170 1.29 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 68 1.58 152 1.04 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 83 1.40 118 1.19 13.32
Next report: November 20 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.