November 21, 2022
Dew points are generally in the low to mid 30s this afternoon. Air temperatures at midday were in the upper 50s to lower 60s. there is a very weak wave of low pressure moving through a much larger high pressure dome over California. The only reason I even bring it up is that it will form a cut off low over the Desert Southwest. While upper level high pressure wraps around its western and northern flanks and builds a ridge into British Columbia.
This high will be stronger than in recent history and will eventually force temperatures up into the 70s this upcoming holiday weekend. Following the weekend, however, the pattern becomes more interesting. Even though there are many differences on models the GFS model is becoming my model of choice. On paper, a deep low is showing up moving out of the Gulf of Alaska with significant rain and mountain snow. A second low, this one even colder, will move out of the Gulf and into California following its predecessor. This system, if it plays out, would be of great benefit for water storage and would be the first storm we’ve had since early November.
A cold northerly flow will set up behind that system about a week from now.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday with patchy late night and morning fog with occasional high clouds. Mostly clear Thursday night through Sunday with patchy late night and early morning fog and occasional high clouds. Increasing clouds Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 30/64/30/65 | Reedley 30/66/31/66 | Dinuba 29/64/30/64 |
| Porterville 29/66/29/66 | Lindsay 28/65/28/65 | Delano 30/66/31/67 |
| Bakersfield 38/65/39/65 | Taft 41/64/42/65 | Arvin 34/65/34/67 |
| Lamont 36/66/36/67 | Pixley 29/65/29/66 | Tulare 28/64/28/65 |
| Woodlake 30/65/31/66 | Hanford 30/65//31/64 | Orosi 29/64/29/65 |
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. During the night through midmorning hours, winds will be generally less than 5 mph with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Even though there are still significant model differences, the GFS model is indicating wet weather around the 28 or 29. On paper, it shows good rainfall for the valley and heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada. Of interest also, a second system, which is very cold, is projected to move in 24 to 36 hours behind the first storm. Expect dry weather through Sunday night and Monday.
Frost: Expect a carbon copy tonight of last night. My wife says “Why not just copy last night’s report onto tonight’s and say Ditto?” I didn’t’ think it was such a good idea.
Anyway, coldest overnight lows tonight in those cold, low lying areas will drop into the 27 to 29 degree range with most locations in the low to mid 30s. The inversion tonight will have temperatures at most locations 5 to 8 degrees warmer at 34 feet.
Looking ahead, models are showing warmer weather for the Thanksgiving weekend and through Monday. I’m hesitant to change temperatures during the overnight hours due to the long nights of November. Even though daytime highs may rise Friday through Sunday, the air will have a long period of time to radiate its heat skyward. With some luck, wet weather will be likely Tuesday through Wednesday of next week with possibly some cold weather following storm number two..
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
27 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
27 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
29 |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 22 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.