November 21, 2022
It was another chilly night as fairly widespread frost was in place throughout the citrus district. Check out the lows below in the frost section and you’ll find it was very beneficial for chill. Upper level high pressure continues a blocking ridge pattern. a weak weather system will move through the Pacific Northwest Tuesday followed by another ridge of high pressure. This one will build northeastward into Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. It will due an efficient job of blockading Pacific storms for now. The GFS model continues to show a strong low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California next Monday and Tuesday. On paper, it appears to be a decent storm followed by a somewhat weaker system which also has potential for dropping additional precipitation. Keep your fingers crossed because, believe it or not, it’s not illegal for rain to fall in central California.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Friday night with patchy night and morning fog and continued hazy. Mostly clear skies will continue Saturday through Monday with patchy fog and continued hazy.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/30/64/31/65 | Reedley 64/31/64/31/65 | Dinuba 63/29/64/30/65 |
| Porterville 64/29/65/30/65 | Lindsay 64/28/64/29/65 | Delano 65/31/64//32/66 |
| Bakersfield 65/40/64/40/65 | Taft 63/42/64/42/66 | Arvin 66/35/64/35/67 |
| Lamont 66/37/67/36/65 | Pixley 64/30/65/30/66 | Tulare 63/28/65/29/65 |
| Woodlake 64/30/65/31/66 | Hanford 65/31/64/31/66 | Orosi 65/28/65/29/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thanksgiving
Mostly clear 33/65 |
Friday
Mostly clear 34/70 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 37/71 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 36/68 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 40/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 27 through December 3: This model shows a completely different pattern. it depicts a decent chance of rain for both northern and central California. The flow aloft will be out of the west/northwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. During the night through midmorning hours, winds will be generally less than 5 mph with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The GFS model continues to indicate a significant storm will move through central California around the 28 or 29 of the month. This same model also depicts a second system moving through around December 1. Until then, expect dry weather through Sunday night and probably much of Monday.
Frost: The following are temperatures as of 5:30 am.. Exeter 28, Madera 27, Maricopa, Sanger, and Lindsay were each at 28. The rest of our region was in the low to mid 30s.. expect very similar conditions both tonight and tomorrow night. There are some high clouds over the eastern Pacific which will be arriving tomorrow, however they won’t be thick enough for radiational cooling to take place. Models still are showing temperatures rising over the Thanksgiving weekend with highs near 70. However, I still believe it’s going to take a relatively strong weather system to break the inversion.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
38 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
33 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
33 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA% Porterville, 98%/31%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 90%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .57 Parlier, .51 Arvin .58 Porterville .56 Delano .50
Soil temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 54, Arvin 57 Porterville .53, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Arvin 59, Porterville 54, Delano 55 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 62/41 Record Temperatures: 81/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 356 +69 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 62% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 114% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 50.4 -4.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 131, Parlier 175, Arvin 114 , Belridge 153, Shafter 144, Stratford 177, Delano 155, Porterville 168 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:44, Sunset, 4:46, hours of daylight, 10:05
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 65 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 84 4.32 292 1.48 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 105 3.06 271 1.13 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 79 1.99 158 1.26 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 52 0.65 68 0.96 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 62 1.57 147 1.07 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 71 1.24 149 0.83 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 114 0.95 164 0.58 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 87 0.78 147 0.53 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 12 M M 0.17 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 113 2.19 170 1.29 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 68 1.58 152 1.04 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 83 1.40 118 1.19 13.32
Next report: November 21 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.