November 23, 2022
Four or five days ago, it appeared we would have a magnificent opportunity for rain in central California. Now, we’ll be lucky to receive any light rain, especially south of Fresno County. Models have done a complete 180 in what had looked like a multiple storm event. Northern California will pick up light showers late Monday into Tuesday. Models are now showing a high nudging the storm track farther and farther north with a return to dry weather and below average temperatures.
In the short term, however, the Thanksgiving weekend looks to be great if you don’t mind the typical valley haze and a few patches of night and morning fog. High pressure will slowly build over the next 24 hours and this will continue into Wednesday with warmest locations on the valley floor in the lower 70s Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will fall back just a bit Saturday as a weak wave of low pressure moves through.
Well, it refuses to rain so why not enjoy the mild autumn days and chilly nights. If you’re curious about where the freezing level is, it was 12,156 feet above Oakland early this morning.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds and a few patches of late night and early morning fog, it will be mostly clear through the holiday weekend. Increasing clouds Monday leading to a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County north late Monday into Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night with the exception of Kern County and southwestern Tulare County which may remain mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday. For the rest of the valley on Tuesday and Wednesday, expect mostly clear to occasional partly cloudy.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/32/69/35/70 | Reedley 65/32/70/35/70 | Dinuba 64/31/68/31/69 |
| Porterville 66/31/70/31/70 | Lindsay 64/30/68/31/69 | Delano 66/33/71/34/70 |
| Bakersfield 65/41/71/43/70 | Taft 64/44/72/45/72 | Arvin 67/37/69/38/70 |
| Lamont 67/36/70/37/70 | Pixley 66/32/69/34/70 | Tulare 64/31/67/32/69 |
| Woodlake 64/31/68/32/69 | Hanford 66/33/68/34/70 | Orosi 64/30/68/31/69 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/70 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 36/68 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 39/65 |
Tuesday
AM showers possible 36/62 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 32/54 |
Two Week Outlook: November 30 through December 7: Let’s try to get some rainfall in here during this time frame. This model does show the storm door open, unlike the present pattern which refuses to rain. Bottom line is the chance of precipitation is good with below average temperatures.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. During the night through midmorning hours, winds will be generally less than 5 mph with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: A few days ago, some significant rain looked likely for the valley and the Sierra Nevada. As each set of model information comes across my desk, the storm track moves further north. It now appears we will just have a chance of light showers late Monday night into Tuesday. On the bright side, long range models are showing active weather for the first week in December.
Frost: In and out cloud cover last night nudged temperatures up for a change. Ivanhoe, Lindsay, and Porterville, as of 5:30, were each reporting 31 with Madera at 32. All other locations were between 33 and 36. Satellite imagery does not show much cloud cover further north so it appears we will go back to low to mid 30s with the coldest locations in the upper 20s. Ditto that for Friday through Sunday, although it’s possible strengthening high pressure aloft over the weekend will edge daytime highs a little higher. How this will affect overnight low temps is rather speculative considering the dryness of the valley floor. By the way, this is the 23rd day in a row that colder locations have hit 32 or lower.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/37% Porterville, 98%/38%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 90%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .56 Parlier, .51 Arvin .58 Porterville .55 Delano .50
Soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 57 Porterville .53, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 62/40 Record Temperatures: 78/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 392 +77 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 57% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 151% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 49.8 -4.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 165, Parlier 220 Arvin 150 , Belridge 193, Shafter 188, Stratford 218, Delano 196, Porterville 213 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:46, Sunset, 4:45, hours of daylight, 10:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 63 / 42 / 0.00 /
NID : China Lake NAWS 2283 : 65 / 29 / 0.00 /
EDW : Edwards AFB 2302 : 62 / 23 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 76 4.32 265 1.63 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 95 3.06 245 1.25 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 73 1.99 146 1.36 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 47 0.65 61 1.06 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 57 1.57 135 1.16 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 66 1.24 139 0.89 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 105 0.95 151 0.63 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 81 0.78 137 0.57 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 11 M M 0.18 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 102 2.19 153 1.43 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 63 1.58 140 1.13 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 76 1.40 107 1.31 13.32
Next report: November 23 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.