We will be out of the office this afternoon to have our Thanksgiving with family. We will return Saturday, November 26. Thank you for your understanding.
November 25, 2022
A dome of upper level high pressure is oriented from southwest to northeast across California then northeastward into the northern Rockies. At the surface, pressure is considerably stronger over the Great Basin than off the southern California coast. This is resulting in Santa Ana winds, some of which have leached down onto the valley floor. The CHP office at the bottom of the grapevine is reporting winds at 20 mph, gusting to 35 and a temperature of 63 degrees at 5:00am while most of the remainder of the valley is in the low to mid 30s. these same downslope winds shoved the temperature at Bakersfield yesterday up to 79. These winds will slowly decrease as the surface pressure gradient begins to weaken. Today will be the warmest we will see for a while as the northern portion of the high will erode as a Pacific storm moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest Sunday. Models show the bulk of the energy with this system diving into the Great Basin Monday. there will be a chance of snow showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Monday and Monday night, but it appears this system will be too far to the east for any precipitation on the valley floor. The air mass behind this system is quite cold and will more than likely lead to some frost nights later next week. this is discussed below. Another system will arrive late next week. on paper, it shows a higher possibility of rain for the valley, however these medium range models have done a poor job recently in pinpointing precipitation possibilities.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds and hazy conditions, it will be mostly clear through Sunday night. Variable cloudiness at times Monday through Tuesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. A slight chance of showers Thursday and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/31/67/31/65 | Reedley 71/32/68/32/66 | Dinuba 69/31/67/32/64 |
| Porterville 71/31/67/31/65 | Lindsay 70/30/68/31/66 | Delano 71/33/67/32/65 |
| Bakersfield 72/43/66/43/65 | Taft 70/47/67/46/65 | Arvin 73/38/66/37/65 |
| Lamont 71/39/66/37/64 | Pixley 71/32/68/33/66 | Tulare 69/31/67/31/64 |
| Woodlake 69/32/67/32/65 | Hanford 70/33/67/33/65 | Orosi 68/31/67/31/64 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Variable clouds 35/66 |
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 35/62 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 31/67 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 34/59 |
Friday
Chance of showers 33/58 |
Two Week Outlook: December 2 through December 8: Let’s try to get some rainfall in here during this time frame. This model does show the storm door open, unlike the present pattern which refuses to rain. Bottom line is the chance of precipitation is good with below average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: The gusty winds in the extreme south valley will decrease as the day wears on. Otherwise, winds today will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds tonight and Sunday will be light and variable with periods of near calm conditions. Later Monday, winds will become out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 25 mph along the far west side.
We will be out of the office this afternoon to have our Thanksgiving with family. We will return Saturday, November 26. Thank you for your understanding.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Wednesday night of next week. the storm which at one time looked like it would result in showers for the valley will thrust into the Great Basin for a chance of light snow showers over the Sierra Nevada late Monday into Tuesday. Models show a second system arriving late Thursday and Friday of next week. current models show at least a chance of showers for central California, however medium range models have recently done a poor job in precipitation forecasting. Nevertheless, we’ll monitor this in the coming days.
Frost: The dryness of the valley floor is allowing wide spreads between daytime highs and overnight lows. Even though temperatures topped 70 yesterday, a number of locations were at or below freezing this morning. As of 5:30 this morning, Porterville had chilled down to 30, while Ivanhoe, Exeter, and Lindsay were each reporting 31. Most other locations were between 32 and 37. Tonight will be quite similar with coldest locations at or just below freezing. It’s possible a river bottom or two might brush with the upper 20s for a short while. The inversion tonight will be strong with temperatures at 34 feet from 5 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Expect similar conditions Sunday and possibly Monday, although increasing clouds Monday may modify temperatures. A cold Pacific storm will dive into the Great Basin Monday afternoon and night. A colder air mass will overspread the valley, possibly resulting in some frost nights Wednesday through Friday of next week. for the first time this season, we may see temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. under the right conditions, some locations may drop to 26 to 28 degrees. Obviously, this far out that’s a very broad brushed statement.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/31% Porterville, 99%/30%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 80%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .53 Parlier, .48 Arvin .59 Porterville .52 Delano .47
Soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 52, Arvin 56 Porterville .53, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 61/40 Record Temperatures: 76/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 422 +77 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 54% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 99% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 49.8 -4.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 187, Parlier 249 Arvin 175 , Belridge 219, Shafter 214, Stratford 244, Delano 224, Porterville 240 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:48, Sunset, 4:44, hours of daylight, 9:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 66 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 70 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 71 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 70 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 71 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 79 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 72 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 71 4.32 248 1.74 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 89 3.06 230 1.33 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 69 1.99 139 1.43 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 44 0.65 58 1.13 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 54 1.57 129 1.22 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 63 1.24 132 0.94 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 99 0.95 142 0.67 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 78 0.78 132 0.59 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 11 M M 0.19 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 95 2.19 143 1.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 59 1.58 132 1.20 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 71 1.40 101 1.39 13.32
Next report: November 26 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.