November 26, 2022
We call them inside sliders. That’s when an area of low pressure moves through the Pacific Northwest and, instead of moving southward into California, it moves southeastward into Nevada and Utah. The trailing portion of this trough and trailing system will move through central California this afternoon and tonight with some increasing cloudiness, but that’s all. Most of the dynamics with this system will move into the Great Basin. Temperatures will slide back from the low 70s yesterday to the mid to upper 60s today. The valley will essentially remain capped by weak high pressure so radiational cooling will still take place during the overnight hours, enough to maintain temperatures in the low to mid 30s at night. From Monday through Wednesday night, upper level high pressure will remain just off shore with a northwesterly flow above northern and central California. Models are all over the place on how to handle a storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California late Thursday through Friday. Models have intensity variances and timing issues. The best course of action for this report is to add a chance of light showers to the forecast for this coming Thursday night through Friday. For now, I would say the chance of rain for the valley is fifty fifty. Models have had a difficult time recently with these medium range forecasts. We’ll keep an eye on it.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Mostly cloudy for a time tonight then clearing with mostly clear skies Sunday with the possibility of upslope clouds remaining in Kern and Tulare Counties until Sunday afternoon. Mostly clear and hazy Sunday night through Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday with a chance of light showers Thursday night through Friday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/32/66/32/62 | Reedley 68/33/65/33/63 | Dinuba 67/32/65/33/62 |
| Porterville 68/32/65/33/61 | Lindsay 67/31/65/31/62 | Delano 68/33/65/33/63 |
| Bakersfield 67/43/66/43/61 | Taft 66/44/64/45/61 | Arvin 68/38/65/36/62 |
| Lamont 68/37/65/37/62 | Pixley 68/33/66/34/62 | Tulare 66/32/65/32/61 |
| Woodlake 67/33/65/33/62 | Hanford 67/34/65/33/62 | Orosi 66/32/65/33/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/62 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 31/58 |
Thursday
PM showers possible 37/60 |
Friday
Chance of showers 40/62 |
Saturday
Mostly cloudy 37/57 |
Two Week Outlook: December 2 through December 8: Let’s try to get some rainfall in here during this time frame. This model does show the storm door open, unlike the present pattern which refuses to rain. Bottom line is the chance of precipitation is good with below average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds this morning will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds this afternoon and evening will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with possible stronger gusts along the west side. Winds Sunday through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10 mph during the later morning and afternoon hours. Winds during the overnight hours through mid morning will be generally less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions through Wednesday night. Light showers may spread over the valley late Thursday into Friday. Models are having timing issues and intensity issues with this system. For now, they show the low moving right through California, however models recently have changed their tune with most of the energy moving into the Great Basin. At this point, I’m going to call for a chance of showers and see what trends develop. Models are also showing a system about Sunday of the following week, but that’s much too far out to forecast with any great certainty.
Frost: Even though temperatures made it into the 70s yesterday, the very dry air mass and mostly clear skies allowed temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s again last night. Clouds will increase today as a weak trough of low pressure and a dry cold front moves through. However, most of the cloud cover should be to our south and east during the later night and morning hours, so for this forecast we’ll go with widespread low to mid 30s once again with a chance of isolated locations in the upper 20s. Behind the system moving through today will be a northwest flow which may have enough moisture for upslope clouds to develop against the Tehachapi Mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. If these clouds develop and hang tough through the night, temperatures will be above freezing in mainly Tulare and Kern Counties. For Monday through Wednesday, expect low to mid 30s once again with above freezing conditions Thursday through Saturday due to an incoming weather system. The air mass behind today’s system is relatively cold, but nothing unusual for late November, so low to mid 30s is a bet for the next several days.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 87%/25% Porterville, 95%/21%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 80%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .53 Parlier, .48 Arvin .61 Porterville .53 Delano .48
Soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 52, Arvin 56 Porterville .52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 60/40 Record Temperatures: 81/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 434 +72 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 52% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 96% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 49.9 -4.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 197, Parlier 261 Arvin 183 , Belridge 230, Shafter 226, Stratford 256, Delano 237, Porterville 251 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:50, Sunset, 4:44, hours of daylight, 9:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 71 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 72 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 73 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 73 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 70 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 72 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 73 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
MERCED 0.00 0.99 67 1.99 135 1.47 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 43 0.65 56 1.17 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 52 1.57 125 1.26 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 61 1.24 129 0.96 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 96 0.95 138 0.69 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 77 0.78 130 0.60 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 10 M M 0.20 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 92 2.19 139 1.58 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 57 1.58 127 1.24 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 69 1.40 98 1.43 13.32
Next report: November 26 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.