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Forecast

November 29, 2022 afternoon report

November 29, 2022

Temperatures are anywhere from 7 to 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago with most locations reporting readings in the mid 50s. Dew points, however, are roughly the same and range in the 30s.

The air mass now in place in the valley is colder and, with little in the way of cloud cover tonight plus strong radiational cooling, we’ll see the coldest readings of the frost season to date. Currently, we’re under a northwest flow which wraps around a trough of low pressure now over the Rocky Mountain region. Weak upper level high pressure will maintain a dry forecast through Wednesday. Clouds will begin to thicken and lower Wednesday night with precipitation overspreading the area from Merced northward Wednesday night and over the remainder of the valley Thursday. A pineapple connection is likely with this system. Expect heavy precipitation along the Coast Range and the Sierra Nevada which high resolution models are indicating 3 to 4 inches of rain from this event. The fact that this system is a fairly fast mover should prevent flood problems other than the usual low lying intersections, etc. This is the first of two weather systems. The second low doesn’t look as strong this afternoon, mainly because it’s now projected to move southward further off shore. Even so, showers will begin to spread in from the west and northwest late Friday night and Saturday, tapering off to just a chance of showers Sunday night. This system is colder with lower snow levels. The main challenge for much of next week will be overnight low temperatures. Models still indicate a northerly flow behind the event Sunday which will pipe modified arctic air into the western US. The configuration is such where the flow will be northerly at first then will become north/northwest before upper level high pressure begins to build in from the west. Just as a broad base prediction, which is by no means in concrete, mid to upper 20s would not be a surprise beginning a week from today and each morning thereafter.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies with occasional high clouds through Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy with rain spreading in from the west/northwest Thursday morning with rain likely at times Wednesday night and Thursday, tapering off Thursday. Rain may be locally heavy at times north of Kern County. Partly cloudy late Thursday night and Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday with patchy morning fog. Periods of showers Saturday through Saturday night with a chance of showers Sunday, especially during the morning. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 28/62/39/57 Reedley 29/60/40/60 Dinuba 28/60/39/59
Porterville 28/61/39/61 Lindsay 27/60/38/60 Delano 29/62/40/58
Bakersfield 37/61/40/61 Taft 39/61/41/59 Arvin 31/62/41/61
Lamont 30/63/40/60 Pixley 28/62/41/57 Tulare 27/60/38/57
Woodlake 29/61/39/57 Hanford 29/61/39/58 Orosi 28/61/38/59

 

Wind Discussion: Winds this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph, diminishing and become light and variable this evening through tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday morning will be light and variable then will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph later Wednesday afternoon and night. Winds Thursday will eventually be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph.

 

Rain: Latest high resolution models indicate the first of two weather systems will spread rain over the valley late Wednesday night and Thursday, especially during the morning hours, tapering off into just a chance of showers Thursday night through Friday. The second storm will spread showers over the area late Friday night through Saturday, tapering off by Sunday night.

 

Models indicate the first storm will be a prolific rain maker, especially up and down the Sierra Nevada north of Kern County. Anywhere from 2 to 4 inches is likely along the Sierra. Considering this is a fairly fast moving event, that’s a lot of precipitation. Rainfall amounts on the valley floor should also be substantial with anywhere from a half to three-quarters of an inch from Tulare County north. Along the west side, anywhere from a quarter to a half inch is likely. It now appears likely dry weather will return Friday and Friday night with precipitation returning Saturday into Sunday before the next period of dry weather sets up later Sunday and Sunday night. The second storm system should drop an additional quarter to half inch, although that will be variable due to the showery nature of this event. For now, next week appears dry. There are longer range models that are showing a return of rain to central California beginning around the 10th.

 

Frost:  Satellite imagery indicates all the upslope clouds in Kern County have dissipated with wall to wall hazy sunshine prevailing. With mostly clear skies tonight, plus a dry environment, I don’t see any element that would interfere with a strong radiational cooling night. Dew points as of 1:00 pm were generally running in the 30s, which is a little different from where they’ve been for the better part of November. However, air temperatures are 7 to 10 degrees colder, generally in the mid 50s. expect widespread upper 20s to lower 30s tonight in all sector with coldest unprotected regions in the mid 20s. Most flat terrain operations will range from 28 to 31 with hillsides in the low to mid 30s. the inversion tonight will be fairly weak with temperatures at 34 feet from 3 to 6 degrees warmer at most locations. The blessing of all this is that this will be a one night stand as models show cloud cover advancing ahead of a storm system will show up in a timely manner. If for some reason these clouds do not arrive when expected, upper 20s and lower 30s would be commonplace. However, I do feel most, if not all, locations will be above freezing Thursday morning. Friday through Sunday will also be above freezing. That may change as early as Monday morning, but for sure next Tuesday through Friday when I anticipate lows generally in the mid to upper 20s as the coldest air mass to date will arrive behind Sunday’s weather system. California will be caught between our exiting low to the east and a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific ridging all the way into Alaska. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

28

Porterville

27

Ivanhoe

26

Woodlake

28

Strathmore

28

McFarland

27

Ducor

29

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

26

Exeter

27

Famoso

28

Madera

28

Belridge

27

Delano

28

North Bakersfield

29

Orosi

27

Orange Cove

28

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

31

Sanger River Bottom

24

Root creek

26

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

28

Arvin

30

Lamont

30

Plainview

28

Mettler

30

Edison

31

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

28

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

28

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: November 29 morning

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.