November 30, 2022 afternoon report

November 30, 2022

Satellite imagery over the eastern Pacific Ocean is quite telling. A plume of moisture northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is rapidly moving northeastward and will arrive Thursday. All this is flanked underneath a large low pressure system which at this hour is just off Vancouver Island. Rain is beginning to spread over northwest California and will advance steadily southward tonight, possibly reaching as far south as Merced County by sunrise, spreading over the remainder of the valley Thursday morning and continuing Thursday night. The river forecast which is the combined work of California and Nevada is putting out tremendous numbers for the potential of this storm and a weaker one which will follow. The last couple of days, the river forecast center had predicted 2 to 4 inches of rain along with mountain snow. They have now increased the potential to 4 to 6 inches, of which the lion’s share will be measured Thursday through Thursday night.

The balloon sounding this morning over Oakland indicated a freezing level of 9,900 feet, so obviously the snow level will initially be very high. It will plummet to between 4,000 and 5,000 feet by Thursday.

The rain from the first event will be over by early Friday then a second system will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and through California Saturday night and Sunday. This system is not nearly as impressive. even so, another .25 to .33 seems plausible north of Kern County. For now, next week appears dry under a dome of upper level high pressure. Medium range models are indicating another active pattern possibly setting up around the 9^th of December.

Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight with rain becoming likely from Merced County north by sunrise. Rain at times Thursday through Thursday night, possibly locally heavy at times. Partly cloudy Friday with patchy fog. Increasing cloudiness Friday night with showers becoming likely again Saturday night through Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy Monday. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday with areas of night and morning patchy fog and low clouds.

Short Term:

Madera 40/60/33/54	Reedley 40/58/33/53	Dinuba 38/57/32/52
Porterville 38/59/33/54	Lindsay 38/57/33/53	Delano 40/60/35/54
Bakersfield 42/59/41/54	Taft 44/59/39/53	Arvin 41/60/37/54
Lamont 41/61/38/54	Pixley 40/61/35/54	Tulare 38/57/32/52
Woodlake 39/57/33/53	Hanford 40/59/34/53	Orosi 39/57/33/53

Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph tonight through Thursday with stronger gusts possible. Winds Thursday night will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, diminishing later Thursday night with light winds Friday and Friday night. Winds Saturday will be out of the east or southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts.

Rain: As of the time of this writing, precipitation was overspreading northwest California and will move steadily southward during the night possibly reaching Merced County by sunrise. Rain will overspsread the remainder of the valley Thursday morning with rain continuing through Thursday night. The California/Nevada river forecast center is projecting anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of rain or the equivalent of snow along the Sierra Nevada from the Kern/Tulare County line northward. This takes under consideration both storms. However, the bulk will fall with the first event on Thursday and Thursday night. Dry weather will temporarily return Friday then the chance of showers will again increase Saturday with showers likely Saturday and at times through Sunday.

Rainfall amounts on the valley floor along the east side north of the Kern County line should be between .75 to 1.25. Less than half of that number can be expected along the west side. The valley portion of Kern County should pick up anywhere from .25 to .50.

Next week appears dry, but medium range models seem to be showing another period of active weather beginning about the 9^th.

Frost: For the first time this frost season, I can predict all locations will be above freezing tonight. A few locations may dip down into the lower 30s Friday morning, otherwise most locations will be above freezing due to upslope cloud cover and considerable mixing. Saturday and Sunday mornings should be above freezing due to cloud cover and more precipitation.

Next week will be dry with a relatively cold air mass, although the configuration that was apparent a few days ago has changed in our favor. Anytime from Tuesday through Friday of next week will have widespread low to mid 30s with coldest river bottom type locations dipping down into the upper 20s.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: November 30 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.