December 5, 2022
The storm that dumped copious amounts of precipitation over the Sierra Nevada and substantial rain over much of the valley is now a shadow of its former self. It’s currently over northern California. There are weak disturbances moving through the low and some may be strong enough to produce isolated light showers through tonight. A somewhat stronger disturbance will sag southward into central California Tuesday, increasing the chance of scattered light showers. however no more than a tenth of an inch is expected at any given location. this system will finally exit to the east by Wednesday morning, taking with it its precipitation. So, Wednesday through much of Friday should be dry. The main challenge will be night and morning valley fog as a weak warm air inversion develops over the valley floor. Local frost will be possible Thursday and Friday mornings, however residual cloud cover and areas of fog and low clouds may keep temperatures at least slightly above freezing. On Saturday, a new trough of low pressure will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California for a chance of light showers over the weekend, mainly from Fresno County north. Some of the medium range models are suggesting the possibility of a stronger trough moving through about a week from tomorrow for another shot at possibly substantial precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Tuesday night with a minimal chance of isolated light showers today and tonight. There will be a higher risk of scattered light showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Variable cloudiness Friday night through Sunday with a chance of light showers Saturday into Sunday. Partly cloudy Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/39/58/37/56 | Reedley 59/38/57/37/56 | Dinuba 58/37/57/36/57 |
| Porterville 60/41/57/36/56 | Lindsay 59/37/57/35/57 | Delano 61/40/57/37/57 |
| Bakersfield 59/44/57/45/56 | Taft 58/45/55/45/55 | Arvin 60/42/57/39/56 |
| Lamont 60/40/58/41/57 | Pixley 60/40/58/38/56 | Tulare 58/39/57/37/57 |
| Woodlake 59/38/57/37/57 | Hanford 60/40/58/38/56 | Orosi 58/38/57/37/57 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 33/57 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 34/57 |
Saturday
Showers possible 37/57 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 37/58 |
Monday
Increasing cloud 37/57 |
Two Week Outlook: December 12 through December 18: This time around, this model is still showing the storm door being open during this period for a reasonably good chance of precipitation. These storms come from the Gulf of Alaska so temperatures will be chilly.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the later morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than 18 mph and variable in nature. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light and variable with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: A weak area of low pressure over northern California is all that is left from the storm over the weekend. Weak upper air disturbances will move through the low, resulting in just a small chance of light showers through tonight. A second disturbance will rotate through the low Tuesday, raising the risk factor of widely scattered light showers. No more than a tenth of an inch is anticipated at any given location. after Tuesday, the next chance of measurable rain will arrive late Friday night into Saturday as a trough of low pressure moves through. The dynamics of this system appear fairly weak. Most of the precipitation, if it rains at all, will be north of Fresno. Models also show the possibility of a stronger storm affecting central California next Tuesday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and again tomorrow night with just slightly above freezing temperatures in the coldest locations Wednesday morning. There will be a chance of local frost Thursday and Friday, however I wouldn’t be surprised to see plenty of residual cloud cover and, where skies do clear, fog and low clouds could easily form. Low to mid 30s seem like a pretty good bet for Thursday and Friday mornings. Models are showing temperatures remaining in the 30s Saturday through Monday, however increasing clouds from a system passing through northern California may bring those numbers up. Still nothing on models longer term that appears ominous.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
af |
| Root creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
af |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/68% Porterville, 100%/72%
Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 10% tomorrow 10%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford,.37 Parlier, .29 Arvin .35 Porterville .26 Delano .28
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 52 Arvin 55 Porterville .53, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 58/37 Record Temperatures: 72/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 576 +76 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 2.35, 147% of average, Monthly .1.29
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .82, 91% of average, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature This Month: 50.5 +2.8 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 271, Parlier 364 Arvin 250 , Belridge 300, Shafter 316, Stratford 336, Delano 333, Porterville 349 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:57, Sunset, 4:42, hours of daylight, 9:46
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 61 / 47 / T /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 63 / 49 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 51 / 0.14 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 49 / 0.16 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 51 / 0.09 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 63 / 48 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 64 / 50 / 0.12 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 61 / 47 / 0.10 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.01 2.65 112 4.32 182 2.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.14 2.78 149 3.06 165 1.86 12.27
MERCED 0.40 2.52 135 1.99 107 1.86 11.80
MADERA 0.05 1.50 97 0.65 42 1.55 10.79
FRESNO 0.27 2.35 147 1.57 98 1.60 10.99
HANFORD 0.21 1.63 136 1.24 103 1.20 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 0.82 91 0.95 106 0.90 6.36
BISHOP 0.13 0.62 87 0.78 110 0.71 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 8 M M 0.25 2.20
SALINAS T 2.22 105 2.19 104 2.11 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.20 2.50 154 1.58 98 1.62 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.29 2.03 110 1.40 76 1.85 13.32
Next report: December 5 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.