December 8, 2022
The main challenge this morning is the amount of ground fog. Most of it stretches from west of Bakersfield northward, basically paralleling Highway 99 up to Merced County. There are also pockets of fog elsewhere. Clouds are increasing over northern California ahead of a weak trough of low pressure which will move through central California tonight. As this trough moves through central California, it will weaken with no more than a few sprinkles. That will change drastically over the weekend as a much deeper trough moves over all of California. High resolution models for the Sierra Nevada are quite impressive. From Saturday through Monday morning, as much as 4 to 5 feet of new snow is projected about the 7,000 foot elevation with the foothills below the snow line expecting 2 to 4 inches of precipitation. The valley floor will pick up plenty of precipitation, as well, which is discussed below in the rain summary. This system’s origins are in the Gulf of Alaska so snow should fall as low as 3,000 feet along the back side of the low as it moves inland. The next challenge will come in the form of low temperatures next week. a semi freeze pattern appears to be developing as a ridge of high pressure builds southwest to northeast over the eastern Pacific and into wester Canada. The flow around the eastern side of the high and around the backside of the exiting low will turn the flow aloft north/northeast, allowing modified arctic air to plunge into California. More below in the frost discussion. It appears dry weather will prevail from Monday afternoon through at least Friday of next week. so, after a soaking rain,, fog and low clouds will also be a challenge as the valley becomes capped under a warm air inversion.
Forecast: Areas of dense fog this morning. Becoming mostly clear by midday. Increasing cloudiness later this afternoon. Mostly cloudy tonight with isolated light showers possible. Partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. Increasing cloudiness Saturday morning. Rain as far south as Fresno County by midafternoon, spreading south during the evening. Rain at times Saturday night through Sunday night, locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Monday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday afternoon and night. Mostly clear Tuesday through Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Temperatures:
| Madera 57/40/58/38/60 | Reedley 59/39/59/39/59 | Dinuba 57/40/58/40/57 |
| Porterville 58/40/58/41/59 | Lindsay 57/39/58/40/58 | Delano 58/41/59/40/60 |
| Bakersfield 58/43/59/43/61 | Taft 57/43/57/42/59 | Arvin 58/41/59/40/61 |
| Lamont 58/41/59/40/61 | Pixley 57/39/59/39/60 | Tulare 57/40/58/40/58 |
| Woodlake 58/41/59/39/59 | Hanford 58/41/58/40/59 | Orosi 57/39/58/39/58 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Rain 46/60 |
Monday
AM showers 37/54 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 30/52 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 28/51 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 29/53 |
Two Week Outlook: December 13 through December 19: This model shows that the storm track will continue to affect northern and central California from time to time. It also holds onto below average temperatures so it appears most of these storms will be out of the Gulf of Alaska.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Friday will be no more than 6 mph with periods of near calm condition. Winds Friday night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts Saturday through Sunday.
Rain: A weak upper air disturbance will pass overhead tonight. Most locations will remain dry, however isolated sprinkles or light showers are possible. The weather will be dry Friday into Saturday morning. A very dynamic system will move in from the gulf of Alaska after that. Rain will spread southward, probably reaching Fresno County by midafternoon Saturday, spreading into the south valley by Saturday evening. Expect rain at times Saturday night through Sunday night with a chance of showers for a time Monday morning. Dry weather will prevail Monday afternoon through at least Friday of next week. rainfall amounts on the east side of the valley north of Kern County should tally up to between .50 and 1.00. Expect .25 to .50 along the west side and near .25 to possibly .33 over the valley portion of Kern County.
Frost: The coldest temperature I could find this morning as of five thirty was 31 degrees at Lindsay. Most other locations were between 32 and 37. All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight through Saturday night. The weather pattern is evolving to one which will turn the winds aloft northeasterly behind the weekend storm. A semi freeze pattern shows up on some models this morning as a ridge of high pressure builds northeastward into Canada with arctic air spreading into the western US. Fortunately on models, the high doesn’t appear to go far enough to the northeast to transport the real cold stuff southward. Even so, from Tuesday through Friday of next week, widespread upper 20s and lower 30s are likely with coldest unprotected locations dipping into the mid 20s. stay tuned, as there is plenty of time between now and then for the forecast to change to a milder one. Historically, from this time through mid January is the riskiest time for cold weather. For now, it doesn’t appear to be a damaging freeze.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
af |
| Root creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
af |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/63% Porterville, 100%/69%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 30%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .30, Parlier, .24 Arvin .29 Porterville .19 Delano .21
Soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53 Arvin 55 Porterville .53, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 56/37 Record Temperatures: 77/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 617 +53 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 235, 135% of average, Monthly .1.69
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .90, 95% of average, Monthly: .24
Average Temperature This Month: 50.7 +3.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 282, Parlier 378 Arvin 265 , Belridge 312, Shafter 331, Stratford 346, Delano 345, Porterville 359 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:00, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 55 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 55 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 55 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 59 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 58 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 57 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 57 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 58 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
MERCED 0.00 2.52 125 2.00 99 2.02 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.50 88 0.65 38 1.71 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 2.35 135 1.57 90 1.74 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.63 124 1.24 95 1.31 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.90 92 0.95 97 0.98 6.36
BISHOP 0.03 0.65 86 0.78 103 0.76 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 7 M M 0.27 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 2.38 103 2.26 98 2.30 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.72 153 1.59 89 1.78 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.04 101 1.41 70 2.02 13.32
Next report: December 8 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.