Shortened report due to an early morning health checkup for John. We’ll have the standard report this afternoon.
December 9, 2022
Low pressure is currently intensifying west of Washington state this morning. This storm will be a full blown winter event as it will engulf all of California over the weekend. Like many winter storms, the Sierra Nevada will be perpendicular to the winds aloft which will wring out fairly heavy precipitation along the entire range. Substantial amounts of precipitation will also soak the valley floor. Precipitation estimates are also very impressive, though perhaps a bit overdone. Even if we receive just half of what these models are saying, precipitation amounts will still be pretty healthy. Along the east side of the valley, anywhere from .75 to 1.25 is possible north of Kern County with lesser amounts along the west side and in Kern County. The onset of precipitation should occur by mid to late afternoon Saturday in Fresno County then sweep into the south valley by the early evening hours. The back side of this system will still be overhead Monday morning, so showers should last at least through the morning commute Monday.
The next challenge will be overnight low temperatures Tuesday through Friday of next week. models continue to show a strong high building northeastward almost into Alaska while a trough of low pressure moves into the interior west and the desert southwest, creating a north/northeast flow right down the coast. This will move the coldest air of the season into California. Depending upon residual cloud cover, fog behavior and other parameters, temperatures will be determined. For now, widespread upper 20s and lower 30s appear likely with coldest river bottom type locations dropping into the mid 20s for the first time this season. Coldest nights appear to be Tuesday through Thursday. We’ll have more information on this this afternoon.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy today with areas of fog this morning. Increasing cloudiness tonight. Mostly cloudy Saturday morning. Rain by midafternoon from Fresno County north. Rain at times Saturday night through Sunday night. Showers for a time Monday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday afternoon through Monday night. Becoming mostly clear Tuesday through Thursday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Partly cloudy Friday.
Temperatures: Highs today will warm into the upper 50s. lows tonight will cool to near 40. Highs Saturday will warm into the lower 60s except mid to upper 60s in Kern County. Lows tomorrow night will only dip into the upper 40s to the lower 50s with highs Sunday in the mid 50s.
Next report: December 9 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.