December 14, 2022
We are currently under what we call a rex block pattern. that is when we have low pressure to our east with a second low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Between these two systems is an area of high pressure which the Pacific Coast and California are now under. This is a dry weather pattern for California as Pacific storms are forced northward into Canada. This basic pattern will be with us through Friday. The freezing level has now shot up to 9,900 feet, a significant increase over the 4,000 foot reading taken 24 hours ago. This means warmer air aloft is capping the valley, making it easier for fog to form. The air mass on the valley floor is relatively cold and, with mostly clear skies, below freezing temperatures will continue on the valley floor through the weekend. Medium range models are all over the place in trying to nail down a pattern for next week. currently. there’s little chance for rain as most models are indicating our old friend, the blocking ridge pattern will be in place.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Sunday with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds through Monday through Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 54/3154/30/57 | Reedley 55/30/54/39/55 | Dinuba 53/29/53/29/55 |
| Porterville 54/29/54//29/57 | Lindsay 55/28/55/29/55 | Delano 55/30/55/30/57 |
| Bakersfield 53/35/53/37/57 | Taft 52/38/52/39/56 | Arvin 55/34/55/33/56 |
| Lamont 55/33/54/33/57 | Pixley 54//30/54/31/56 | Tulare 53/28//54/29/55 |
| Woodlake 53/29/53/30/55 | Hanford 53/30/53/29/55 | Orosi 54/29/54/30/55 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 30/56 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 31/56 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 31/57 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 32/57 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 32/58 |
Two Week Outlook: December 21 through December 27 This model is now indicating that a ridge of upper level high pressure will dominate our pattern during this time frame. The chance of precipitation will be low with near average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoons will be variable to 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be light with periods of calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: Coldest locations as of 5:30 this morning were Madera 29, Lindsay, Ivanhoe, and Fowler also at 29. The rest of the growing area was between 30 and 34. Some locations in Kern County only dropped to near 40 due to stubborn cloud cover in the south valley. Now that the air mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere has settled to the bottom of the bathtub, the valley is now capped so there’s nowhere for the air mass to go except to stay in place. The freezing level jumped up to 9,900 feet, indicating a warm air inversion is developing. We’re now in a pattern conducive for fog and/or low clouds and frost as there will be good radiational cooling each night. Expect a continuation of upper 20s and lower 30s through the weekend with the possibility of coldest, unprotected location dropping to 26 to 27 for short durations. most flat terrain will cool to 29 to 32 each night with hillsides remaining above freezing. There’s no real storm system on the horizon, so slightly below freezing will continue each night for much of the week ahead. It’s also possible the fog could take over, but for now, I’m certainly not counting on it.
The inversion tonight will be stronger with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
98 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root creek
28 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/58% Porterville, 100%/60%
Midafternoon dew points: Uppers to the lower 40s. Kern: Uppers to the lower 40s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today 50% tomorrow 90%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .35, Parlier, .28 Arvin .41 Porterville .31 Delano .30
Soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 52 Arvin 52 Porterville .50, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 55/37 Record Temperatures: 72/23
Heating Degree Days This Season. 693 +35 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.25 159% of average, Monthly 2.57
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.10, 96% of average, Monthly: .44
Average Temperature This Month: 49.7 +2.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 328, Parlier 439 Arvin 381 Belridge 366, Shafter 401, Stratford 401, Delano 415, Porterville 417 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:04, Sunset, 4:44, hours of daylight, 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 32 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 54 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 52 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 54 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 54 / 44 / 0.00 /
NID : China Lake NAWS 2283 : 53 / 25 / 0.00 /
EDW : Edwards AFB 2302 : 51 / 23 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 53 / 32 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 55 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 4.47 147 5.79 190 3.04 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.48 181 5.22 211 2.47 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.77 159 2.72 115 2.37 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.04 99 0.69 33 2.06 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.25 159 2.24 109 2.05 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.34 152 1.61 105 1.54 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 93 1.10 93 1.18 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.15 250 1.27 148 0.86 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 10 M M 0.31 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.77 139 3.72 137 2.71 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.34 205 2.65 125 2.12 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.27 138 2.40 101 2.37 13.32
Next report: December 14 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.