December 15, 2022
A rex block pattern will continue through the weekend. one low center is located over Iowa this morning. The second is several hundred miles off the California coast. Between these two systems is upper level high pressure off shore which keeps a northerly flow over California. This flow is maintaining fairly low dew points over the valley floor, resulting in below freezing temperatures in many locations. The dryness of the atmosphere is also doing an efficient job in maintaining just patchy fog in the valley. This pattern will continue through the weekend with a new pattern evolving early next week. the northern portion of the high will break down, allowing Pacific storms to move into the Pacific Northwest. This is a pattern change but sadly any precipitation will remain north of the Oregon border. Medium range models are also discouraging as they show a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific and California with the main storm track driving even further north. It’s a blessing that we received such heavy precipitation with our last storm as it appears no rain will occur for at least the next week and more than likely ten days.
Forecast: Outside of some high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through Monday with patchy night and morning valley fog. Mostly clear to occasionally patchy fog nights and mornings Monday night through Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 55/30//55/29/55 | Reedley 56/30/57/30/58 | Dinuba 54//56/29//57 |
| Porterville 56/29/57/30/58 | Lindsay 56/29/57//28/58 | Delano 5729/30/57/31/58 |
| Bakersfield 55/36/58/36/58 | Taft 53/39/57/39//58 | Arvin 57/33/57/33/58 |
| Lamont 56/34/57/34/58 | Pixley 55//29/57/29/58 | Tulare 54/29/55/30/57 |
| Woodlake 55/30/55/30/56 | Hanford 56/31/57/31/58 | Orosi 54/30/55/31/56 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 31/57 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 30/58 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 31/57 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 33/59 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 33/57 |
Two Week Outlook: December 22 through December 28: This model shows a strong signature of dry weather continuing. A large high will be over the eastern Pacific covering roughly the western 1/3 of the US. This will result in above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoons will be variable to 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be light with periods of calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: As of 5:30 this morning, Sanger, Clovis, Ivanhoe, Lindsay and McFarland were each reporting 29 degrees. Just about all other locations were in the 30 to 34 degree range. A northerly flow maintains a trickle of relatively cold, dry air onto the valley floor. This pattern is responsible for the lack of fog and strong radiational cooling. There is a large area of higher clouds off shore. Satellite imagery clearly depicts upper level high pressure from blocking these clouds from moving eastward. Tonight will be very similar to this morning with good radiational cooling. Coldest locations will again drop to 28 to 29 with coldest river bottom type locations down to 27 or so
The inversion tonight will be strong with temperatures at 34 feet generally from 5 to 8 degrees warmer.
Similar conditions can be expected through the weekend. Models do show daytime highs slowly nudging up about Monday and at some point, lows will be dragged up with them. As long as dew points are at 40 at midday,, lows will continue to drop to below freezing at most locations.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
39 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/58% Porterville, 100%/60%
Midafternoon dew points: Uppers to the lower 40s. Kern: Uppers to the lower 40s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today 50% tomorrow 90%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .35, Parlier, .28 Arvin .41 Porterville .31 Delano .30
Soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 52 Arvin 52 Porterville .50, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 55/37 Record Temperatures: 72/23
Heating Degree Days This Season. 693 +35 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.25 159% of average, Monthly 2.57
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.10, 96% of average, Monthly: .44
Average Temperature This Month: 49.7 +2.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 328, Parlier 439 Arvin 381 Belridge 366, Shafter 401, Stratford 401, Delano 415, Porterville 417 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:04, Sunset, 4:44, hours of daylight, 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 32 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 54 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 52 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 54 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 54 / 44 / 0.00 /
NID : China Lake NAWS 2283 : 53 / 25 / 0.00 /
EDW : Edwards AFB 2302 : 51 / 23 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 53 / 32 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 55 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 4.47 147 5.79 190 3.04 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.48 181 5.22 211 2.47 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.77 159 2.72 115 2.37 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.04 99 0.69 33 2.06 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.25 159 2.24 109 2.05 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.34 152 1.61 105 1.54 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 93 1.10 93 1.18 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.15 250 1.27 148 0.86 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 10 M M 0.31 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.77 139 3.72 137 2.71 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.34 205 2.65 125 2.12 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.27 138 2.40 101 2.37 13.32
Next report: December 15 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.