December 16, 2022
The amount of fog this morning as compared to yesterday is about double. Fog stretches from northeast of Bakersfield then basically parallels Highway 99 all the way northward to the Modesto/Stockton area. Temperatures are also quite chilly this AM. The coldest I could find as of 5:30 this morning was 28 at Sanger, Porterville, and Lindsay and 29 at Lindcove. The inversion above the valley floor is certainly not the strongest I’ve ever seen, but it is stable enough to cap the valley. No doubt fog will persist longer this afternoon. There’s even a chance it could persist through the day in some areas. Upper level high pressure stretches from the Gulf of Alaska southeastward to the Pacific Northwest and into California with a light northerly flow aloft. That northerly flow will slowly become northwesterly as a broad area of low pressure stretches from eastern Alaska then to the northern tier states from Washington to Minnesota. What does that mean for us? you say. Not much as it will not break the cap over the valley floor. As fog and low cloud will continue to be a daily theme. There’s a better chance the fog will have more of an impact on temperatures in the coming days. The very long sun angle of the shortest day of the year will make it more difficult to burn off the Tule fog. Medium range models show a stronger version of high pressure moving into the west the week of Christmas, meaning lower temperatures in the fog free zones with temperatures on the valley fog being governed by when the fog burns off, if it does. For those of you traveling Christmas week, be advised it will be bitterly cold over the eastern 2/3 of the lower 48, which means wider areas of the US will experience a white Christmas of the US.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies with occasional high clouds and areas of night and morning fog and low clouds through Tuesday. The fog may persist through the day in a few areas. Widespread fog and low clouds with hazy afternoon sunshine in some areas Tuesday through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 56/30/55/31/56 | Reedley 56/31/56/30/54 | Dinuba 54/29/53/29/55 |
| Porterville 56/29/55/30/55 | Lindsay 54/28/54/29/53 | Delano 57/31/56/31/55 |
| Bakersfield 57/35/54/35/56 | Taft 55/38/55/39/56 | Arvin 57/34/57/33/55 |
| Lamont 57/33/57/35/56 | Pixley 55/30/56/31/54 | Tulare 54/30/53/29/53 |
| Woodlake 55/29/55/30/55 | Hanford 54/30/53/31/55 | Orosi 54/30/54/29/53 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
AM fog/PM sun 30/55 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 31/57 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 31/56 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 32/55 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 33/55 |
Two Week Outlook: December 22 through December 28: This model shows a strong signature of dry weather continuing. A large high will be over the eastern Pacific covering roughly the western 1/3 of the US. This will result in above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoons will be variable to 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be light with periods of calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: My feeling is that fog will become more of a player in the coming days. This morning, there was an area of high clouds over Kern County which was relatively fog free. But the remainder of the valley was relatively clear, allowing for stronger radiational cooling. As a result, fog was widespread from northwest of Bakersfield all the way north to Stockton and Modesto. It will also be more difficult for the fog to burn off in the afternoon so temperatures both in the warmth of the afternoon and the chilly morning hours will be more affected by fog from this point on. Lows tonight will 6into the upper 20s again at the colder locations. The very coldest locations will dip down to 26 to27 with most flatland locations coming in at 29 to 33. hillsides will be above freezing. The inversion tonight will be strong with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 8 degree warmer at most locations. Expect similar conditions Sunday and Monday. again, if the fog socks in early, or burns off late in the afternoon, it can make a difference. Nothing in the medium range forecast suggests worrisome weather for the foreseeable future at this point. Again, if you happen to be travelling back east for Christmas, it will be bitterly cold.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/67% Porterville, 100%/69%
Midafternoon dew points: Uppers to the lower 40s. Kern: Uppers to the lower 40s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 60% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 60%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .35, Parlier, .30 Arvin .40 Porterville .31 Delano .32
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 51 Arvin 54 Porterville .48, Delano 48 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 55/36 Record Temperatures: 70/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 758 +43 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.25 186% of average, Monthly 2.57
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.10, 88% of average, Monthly: .44
Average Temperature This Month: 48.8 +2.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 350, Parlier 474 Arvin 349 Belridge 413, Shafter 433, Stratford 433, Delano 448, Porterville 449 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:06, Sunset, 4:45, hours of daylight, 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 31 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 54 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 53 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 30 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 52 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 52 / 32 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 55 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 4.47 140 6.04 189 3.20 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.48 172 5.69 218 2.61 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.77 151 3.52 141 2.50 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.04 94 0.69 32 2.18 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.25 150 3.27 151 2.16 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.34 144 2.48 152 1.63 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 88 2.07 166 1.25 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.15 242 2.62 294 0.89 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 9 M M 0.33 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.77 133 4.22 149 2.84 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.34 194 3.43 153 2.24 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.27 131 3.54 142 2.49 13.32
Next report: December 16 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible