December 18, 2022
Dense fog this morning is more widespread than I’ve seen so far this season. About the only region not covered by a blanket of fog is part of the city of Fresno. Basically, the pea soup extends from the base of the Tehachapi Mountains to Stockton. Almost every location is reporting ¼ mile visibility or less. once the fog reaches a certain point, it becomes more difficult to burn off, even during the warmest part of the day. The effect on temperatures can be very profound as high temperatures in the fog shrouded areas will warm to no more than the low to mid 40s. Locations that do receive a peak or two of sunshine will rise into the low to mid 50s. So, the temperature forecasting seen below will range from spot on to way off. Upper level high pressure stretches from Texas northwestward to the Desert Southwest then ridges into the Gulf of Alaska. This translates into a very weak northwesterly flow aloft. As we move forward in time, more of an amplified pattern will begin to take shape. That’s when upper level high pressure becomes more dominant over the west and the eastern Pacific. On the flip side, arctic low pressure digs down into the eastern part of the country which will translate into a brutally cold Christmas for our friends and neighbors back east. This pattern does not bring precipitation. Expect dry foggy weather for the next week to possibly ten days.
Forecast: Widespread fog and low clouds with clearing in some areas during the afternoons through Tuesday. Widespread fog and low clouds with partial afternoon clear Tuesday night through Saturday
Temperatures:
Where hazy sunshine prevails this afternoon, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s. Where it does not clear, readings will only range in the 40s. Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s with readings in the upper 20s to the lower 30s on the edge of fog banks. (Expect the same general pattern until the fog breaks off. Temperature forecasting will be a day by day thing.)
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 30/58 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 31/52 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 32/54 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 31/54 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 33/55 |
Two Week Outlook: December 24 through December 30: This model shows a strong signature of dry weather continuing. A large high will be over the eastern Pacific covering roughly the western 1/3 of the US. This will result in above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoons will be variable to 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be light with periods of calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: This morning is a lesson we haven’t seen in quite some time in weather forecasting. There are more locations in the upper 20s this morning than we’ve seen all season. Typically, valley fog is good for citrus, but occasionally it can throw a curve ball, such as this morning. Temperatures can quickly slide down right along the edge of fog banks, sometimes as much as 3 to 5 degrees in a short period of time, and that happened with a number different locations this morning. So, beginning tonight, we’ll play by a different set of rules. Assuming the fog becomes entrenched enough and lifts into a gray overcast, all locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but only slightly above in coldest locations. However, if the fog dissipates and clears by sunset tonight it will reform this evening and become widespread again by Sunday morning. So, instead of the usual radiational cooling process, we have more possibilities to content with in the coming days. I’m hoping it just becomes a low overcast like it has in years past. If not, the numbers you see below will be lower confidence than I would like. There’s simply no way to determine where the edge of a fog bank will move. The numbers below will reflect the colder possibility for tonight’s outcome. Then, if we get a low overcast, readings will be in the low 30s. so, here goes:
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root creek
28 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
29 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/72% Porterville, 100%/70%
Midafternoon dew points: Uppers to the lower 40s. Kern: Uppers to the lower 40s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today 40% tomorrow 30%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .34, Parlier, .29 Arvin .38 Porterville .29 Delano .29
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 50 Arvin 54 Porterville .48, Delano 47 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 55/36 Record Temperatures: 70/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 779 +45 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.25 146% of average, Monthly 2.59
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.10, 85% of average, Monthly: .44
Average Temperature This Month: 48.4 +1.8 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 367, Parlier 492 Arvin 365 Belridge 430, Shafter 450, Stratford 449, Delano 466, Porterville 465 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:06, Sunset, 4:45, hours of daylight, 9:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
mCE : Merced AP 153 : 54 / 32 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 54 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 58 / 34 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 55 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 57 / 33 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 53 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 57 / 30 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 4.47 137 6.40 196 3.27 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.48 167 5.97 223 2.68 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.77 147 3.71 145 2.56 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.04 91 0.69 31 2.24 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.25 146 3.34 150 2.22 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.34 140 2.64 158 1.67 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 85 2.07 160 1.29 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.15 236 2.67 293 0.91 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 9 M M 0.34 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.77 130 4.59 158 2.91 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.34 188 3.49 151 2.31 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.27 128 3.55 139 2.55 13.32
Next report: December 17 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.