December 18, 2022
Every location between Bakersfield and Sacramento is reporting either a visibility of ¼ mile to ½ mile. Visalia and Porterville are also reporting drizzle. Satellite imagery is showing the San Joaquin valley as one giant layer of fog and low clouds surrounded by clear skies. The tops of the overcast are at around 1,500 feet. Some locations just might see a few peeks of sunshine this afternoon. However, with high pressure and its descending air mass, there will be little mixing. So, the same weather regime will last through the week. the pattern will slowly evolve into an amplified pattern. by that, I mean a strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the eastern Pacific and western US as an arctic air mass dives southeastward into the eastern 2/3 of the US. By Christmas Eve, temperatures as far south as northern Arkansas will plummet to near 0. This is the type of pattern which could cause Florida some problems. At this point it’s just too difficult to determine how far south this air mass will plunge. In the meantime, the fog regime in the valley will maintain safe conditions for citrus.
Forecast: Fog and low clouds through Friday with a chance of local clearing in the afternoon. Fog and low clouds will continue Christmas Eve then increasing higher clouds will be observed that night with a chance of rain Christmas Day.
Temperatures:
| Madera 46/38/47/38/46 | Reedley 45/37/45/38/46 | Dinuba 44/38/45/39/45 |
| Porterville 47/38/48/38/47 | Lindsay 48/36/48/37/47 | Delano 46/39/47/39/48 |
| Bakersfield 49/40/48/39/47 | Taft 52/37/53/38/53 | Arvin 51/37/50/37/48 |
| Lamont 50/37/51/37/50 | Pixley 47/39/47/38/48 | Tulare 46/40/47/39/47 |
| Woodlake 48/38/48/39/48 | Hanford 46/39/47/39/47 | Orosi 48/38/47/39/47 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Fog and low clouds 36/48 |
Thursday
Fog and low clouds 36/47 |
Friday
Fog and low clouds 37/49 |
Saturday
Fog and low clouds 36/61 |
Sunday
Chance of rain 40/63 |
Two Week Outlook: December 24 through December 30: This model shows a strong signature of dry weather continuing. A large high will be over the eastern Pacific covering roughly the western 1/3 of the US. This will result in above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoons will be variable to 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be light with periods of calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: There are models coming into focus now pointing towards a signature for wet weather. Beginning Christmas Eve, models show the high breaking down, allowing a zonal or westerly flow to break in from the Pacific. This pattern is conducive for milder systems to move from west to east into at least the northern half of California and possibly further south. This trend began on models yesterday and continues today. Hopefully, precipitation will return by the end of Christmas week,
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight but only slightly above in the coldest locations. A protective layer of fog and low clouds now shrouds the valley so winter is in protective mode for valley growers. A continuation of this basic pattern can be expected through at least Friday. A pattern change should begin Christmas Eve, returning a chance of rain to the valley along with a milder, westerly.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/96% Porterville, 100%/100%
Midafternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 10%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .30, Parlier, .27 Arvin .30 Porterville .27 Delano .25
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 50 Arvin 53 Porterville .47, Delano 47 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 55/36 Record Temperatures: 71/26
Heating Degree Days This Season. 806 +52 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.25 143% of average, Monthly 2.59
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.10, 85% of average, Monthly: .44
Average Temperature This Month: 47.8 +1.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 382, Parlier 509 Arvin 382 Belridge 468, Shafter 468, Stratford 466, Delano 486, Porterville 482 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:07, Sunset, 4:45, hours of daylight, 9:38
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 45 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 49 / 39 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 53 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 43 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 43 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 43 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 42 / 38 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 42 / 38 / T /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 4.47 133 6.40 191 3.35 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.48 163 5.97 217 2.75 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.77 144 3.71 142 2.62 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.04 89 0.69 30 2.29 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.25 143 3.34 147 2.27 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.34 137 2.64 154 1.71 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 83 2.07 157 1.32 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.15 234 2.67 290 0.92 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 9 M M 0.35 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.77 127 4.59 155 2.97 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.34 183 3.49 147 2.37 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.27 125 3.55 136 2.61 13.32
Next report: December 19 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.