December 20, 2022
Most of the fog and low clouds this morning are towards the center and northern portions of the valley. Further south there’s areas of low clouds and patchy fog. Enough mixing took place over the south valley to allow for partial clearing. Above the fog is a layer of high clouds which slowed the radiational cooling last night to maintain the fog at a fairly minimal level. The overall weather pattern is slowly reverting to one which will result in above average temperatures over the western US and bitterly cold weather over the eastern two thirds. Upper level high pressure is slowly building northward along the west coast and will build a ridge into the Gulf of Alaska. The only areas to receive below average temperatures in the west will be the valley floor due to fog and low clouds and even that will begin to mix out as the week wears on. By early next week, a westerly flow will begin to take shape across the eastern Pacific and into California. This will eventually bring rain back to California about a week from today as the storm track sags slowly southward. Unlike early this season when cold storms affected California, these will be mid Pacific type storms which are milder.
Forecast: Partly cloudy with areas of fog and low clouds through Friday. Party cloudy Saturday through Monday with patchy fog, mainly during the night and morning. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 53/32/55/33/57 | Reedley 55/31/56/33/57 | Dinuba 53/31/52/32/57 |
| Porterville 55/32/56/33/57 | Lindsay 55/31/55/32/56 | Delano 56/34/57/34/59 |
| Bakersfield 57/35/57/36/58 | Taft 55/39/56/41//57 | Arvin 56/33/56/34/58 |
| Lamont 56/33/56/34/57 | Pixley 55/32/56/33/58 | Tulare 54/31/55/32/57 |
| Woodlake 55/32/55/35/57 | Hanford 54/32/55/35/55 | Orosi 54/32/54/33/55 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
AM fog/PM sun 35/58 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy
37/60 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 37/60 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 38/64 |
Tuesday
Slight chance of rain
42/65 |
Two Week Outlook: December 27 through January 2: this model shows a westerly flow across the eastern Pacific and the lower 48. This is a favorable pattern for rain with above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoons will be variable to 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be light with periods of calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: Models for the past couple of days have been trending towards the return of wet weather. Right now I have a target day of around the 28 as a westerly flow develops over the eastern Pacific and into California, steering milder Pacific storms over especially the northern half of California.
Frost: Enough mixing took place during the overnight hours to disperse the fog in some areas of the south valley. Other further north remained under the low cloud deck while still others were reporting dense ground fog. For tonight’s forecast, we’ll go ahead and place coldest locations back in the upper 20s and study the clearing pattern as the day progresses. Most locations will chill down to around 29 to 32. Since there doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to the behavior of the fog, as usual we’ll have to approach this on a night by night basis. During the second half of the Christmas weekend, a westerly flow will begin across the eastern Pacific. This will begin to pump warmer air into California this weekend, possibly leading us into a mild, wet pattern about Tuesday of next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
31 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/73% Porterville, 100%/83%
Midafternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 30% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 30%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .21, Parlier, .20 Arvin .27 Porterville .21 Delano .19
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 48 Arvin 53 Porterville .45, Delano 45 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/36 Record Temperatures: 70/24
Heating Degree Days This Season. 856 +62 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.25 135% of average, Monthly 2.59
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.10, 79% of average, Monthly: .44
Average Temperature This Month: 46.9 +0.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 428, Parlier 557 Arvin 429 Belridge 495, Shafter 516, Stratford 514, Delano 534, Porterville 530 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:08, Sunset, 4:46, hours of daylight, 9:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 40 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 42 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 46 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 44 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 44 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 41 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 49 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 4.47 127 6.40 182 3.51 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.48 154 5.97 206 2.90 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.77 137 3.71 135 2.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.04 85 0.69 29 2.41 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.25 135 3.34 139 2.40 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.34 129 2.64 146 1.81 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 79 2.07 148 1.40 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.15 222 2.67 275 0.97 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 8 M M 0.36 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.77 121 4.59 148 3.11 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.34 173 3.49 139 2.51 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.27 119 3.55 129 2.75 13.32
Next report: December 20 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.