December 21, 2022
The low cloud deck on the valley floor seems to have tightened up a bit. Unlike yesterday, the low cloud deck does not appear as ragged around the edges which is an indication that the inversion has tightened up above the valley floor. So, the cloud deck is denser and will have a more difficult time burning off this afternoon. Trying to out guess the fog is always a challenge, but a little clearing is anticipated again this afternoon. Strong high pressure is slowly building northward along the west coast and is ridging into the Gulf of Alaska. In the meantime, bitterly cold air is sliding southeastward over the intermountain west and now into the Midwest. As we head into the weekend, the high will erode over the Pacific Northwest, eventually allowing the westerlies to break through. A series of Pacific storms, each one moving inland further south, will begin to affect northern California Monday then central California Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears we will have a couple of opportunities for rain during Christmas and new year’s.
Forecast: Fog and low clouds through Saturday with partial afternoon clearing. Partly cloudy Sunday after areas of fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a chance of showers Monday night through Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 48/38/47/38/47 | Reedley 48/37/48/37/47 | Dinuba 45/40/46/39/46 |
| Porterville 49/38/48/38/47 | Lindsay 49/37/49/38/48 | Delano 48/38/47/38/46 |
| Bakersfield 50/40/50/41/51 | Taft 53/43/52/43/52// | Arvin 53/36/53/36/52 |
| Lamont 51/40/51/37/52 | Pixley 46/37/45/37/46 | Tulare 45/38/45/37/48 |
| Woodlake 47/40/46/40/46 | Hanford 47/40/48/41//47 | Orosi 46/30/46/38/47 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
AM fog/partly cloudy 37/58 |
Sunday
AM fog/partly cloudy 42/62 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 47/59 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 48/65 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 51/68 |
Two Week Outlook: December 28 through January 3: this model shows a westerly flow across the eastern Pacific and the lower 48. This is a favorable pattern for rain with above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoons will be variable to 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be light with periods of calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: This is the third day in a row that a signature for rain has been showing up on the mid range model. With some luck, I believe we will see rain again next Tuesday or Wednesday. There may also be a shot at precipitation later next week as well.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight but only slightly above in the coldest locations. The behavior of the low cloud deck overnight leads me to believe the inversion has tightened up some. This usually means less chance of clearing. It also, though, means less chance of clearing in the overnight hours which means less chance of freezing.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/88% Porterville, 100%/100%
Midafternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 20%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .16, Parlier, .16 Arvin .25 Porterville .16 Delano .15
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 48 Arvin 52 Porterville .48, Delano 46 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/36 Record Temperatures: 70/24
Heating Degree Days This Season. 856 +62 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.25 126% of average, Monthly 2.59
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.10, 77% of average, Monthly: .44
Average Temperature This Month: 46.9 +0.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 428, Parlier 557 Arvin 429 Belridge 495, Shafter 516, Stratford 514, Delano 534, Porterville 530 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:08, Sunset, 4:46, hours of daylight, 9:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 52 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 52 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 47 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 43 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 43 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1535 / 48 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 40 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1524 / 41 / 32 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1542 / 44 / 35 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 51 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 4.47 125 6.40 178 3.59 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.48 151 5.97 201 2.97 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.77 134 3.71 132 2.81 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.04 83 0.69 28 2.47 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.25 132 3.34 136 2.46 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.34 126 2.64 142 1.86 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 77 2.07 145 1.43 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.15 217 2.67 270 0.99 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 8 M M 0.37 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.77 119 4.59 144 3.18 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.34 168 3.49 135 2.58 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.27 116 3.55 126 2.82 13.32
Next report: December 21 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.