December 23, 2022
Once again this morning, the valley is packed with ground fog. Every single reporting station from Bakersfield to Merced is reporting 1/3 visibility or less as of 5:00 this morning. Computer guidance is useless during fog regimes. On days where clearing is more widespread, temperatures into the 50s. on days where no clearing is apparent, readings only warm into the low to mid 40s. Today is yet another major temperature challenge as readings will be determined by the amount of clear that occurs. We have at least one more day of fog and low clouds and possibly two. The pattern should change enough by Monday to allow a change to a wet pattern. currently, upper level high pressure is centered off the coast of Baja wit a ridge extending north/northeast into the Pacific Northwest. A series of storms will erode the top of the high beginning Sunday, allowing the storm track to sink progressively southward. Precipitation may arrive as early as Monday night, however Tuesday looks more likely. Another Pacific storm will arrive around Monday of next week. the character of these systems will be different from the ones earlier this month as they are forming at a lower latitude which means milder air will be associated with these systems which initially will mean higher snow levels.
Forecast: Fog and low clouds with partial afternoon clearing through Saturday night. Area of fog and low clouds Sunday morning otherwise it will be partly cloudy. Increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a chance of rain Monday night. Rain becoming likely Tuesday and Tuesday night. A chance of showers Wednesday. Showers likely again Thursday. Partly cloudy Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 48/36/49/34/52 | Reedley 48/37/49/34/58 | Dinuba 47/35/50/35/59 |
| Porterville 51/33/52/34/61 | Lindsay 51/33/52/34/62 | Delano 47/37/52/37/61 |
| Bakersfield 43/38/54/39/63 | Taft 52/41/52/43/63 | Arvin 54/35/58/37/63 |
| Lamont 53/35/52/35/63 | Pixley 49/34/52/34/62 | Tulare 47/35//52/37/60 |
| Woodlake 48/39/53/37/61 | Hanford 52/35/53/38/59 | Orosi 50/33/51/38/60 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Pm rain 41/63 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 47/64 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 48/61 |
Thursday
Showers likely 45/62 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 46/69 |
Two Week Outlook: December 28 through January 3: this model shows a westerly flow across the eastern Pacific and the lower 48. This is a favorable pattern for rain with above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoons will be variable to 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be light with periods of calm conditions through Sunday. For Monday night and Tuesday, pressure differences will tighten up between the strong storm system over the Pacific Northwest and higher pressure over southern California. Gusty south to southeast winds will be a factor in the northern half of California. We will also have to watch for locally gusty winds in the extreme south valley, depending the placement of the various features.
Rain For days now, models have been pointing at rain for next week. it still looks like Tuesday will be the target date although showers could spread over the northern half of the state as early as Monday night. Another piece of good news is these storms will have a good impact on snow in the Sierra Nevada with significant rain below the snow level. A second system will round around Thursday for potentially more significant precipitation. Medium range models show more possible opportunities as we get closer to New Year’s.
Frost: like the past several nights, tonight’s outcome will be governed by the behavior of the fog. The amount of clearing this afternoon will determine temperatures. In areas of fog free conditions, readings may dip to 30 to 32 or so with a chance of a river bottom out there dropping into the upper 20s for short durations. Milder weather is on the way. Warmer air aloft will begin to move in as early as Sunday and will finally begin to scour out the valley of its fog and low clouds. It’s safe to say that next week will be above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/78% Porterville, 100%/83%
Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s:
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 30%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .07, Parlier, .08 Arvin .17 Porterville .08 Delano .08
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 48 Arvin 51 Porterville .45, Delano 45 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/36 Record Temperatures: 68/18
Heating Degree Days This Season. 931 +77 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.25 125% of average, Monthly 2.59
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.10, 73% of average, Monthly: .44
Average Temperature This Month: 46.0 -02 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 476, Parlier 629 Arvin 496 Belridge 565, Shafter 583, Stratford 586, Delano 604, Porterville 602 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:09, Sunset, 4:48, hours of daylight, 9:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 45 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 44 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 47 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 43 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 44 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 45 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 43 / 36 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 48 / 34 / T /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 4.47 119 6.68 178 3.75 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.48 143 6.13 196 3.13 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.77 128 3.85 131 2.94 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.04 78 0.79 30 2.60 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.25 125 3.74 144 2.60 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.34 119 2.93 149 1.96 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 73 2.29 152 1.51 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.15 207 2.68 258 1.04 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 8 M M 0.39 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.77 113 4.62 139 3.33 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.34 160 4.13 152 2.72 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.27 110 4.00 135 2.97 13.32
Next report: December 23 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.