December 26, 2022
The weather pattern setting up this week is historically one of the wettest rain producers for California and I feel comfortable in saying flooding will become an issue this week with areas of ponding water on the valley floor and along the canyons of the Sierra Nevada from the Kern County line north. High resolution computer rainfall estimates from now through January 1 are forecasting between 10 and 15 inches along the Sierra Nevada with heaviest amounts in Sequoia Park. We’ll get into the valley estimates in the rainfall discussion below. The protective ridge of high pressure which kept us cold and foggy recently is rapidly breaking down. Rain is spreading over northwest California and will spread as far south as a San Simeon/Fresno County line during the early morning hours. satellite imagery depicts an eastern Pacific Ocean which is churning with activity. It’s difficult to discern where one storm stops and another begins, but believe me, there’s a whole parade of them out there. It’s also likely that central California between Yosemite and the Kern County line will pick up the heaviest amounts. The current freezing level taken earlier today above Oakland is 12,900 feet. That will give you an idea of where snow levels will start with this storm. Snow levels will come down to around 7,000 feet, but not before initially dropping heavy rain at high elevations. You may remember when Yosemite took a beating with heavy flooding several years ago. The pattern currently evolving is quite similar. I’m going to keep at least a decent chance of rain in the forecast every day this week. the two week outlook for January 3 through the 9 is also indicating well above average precipitation. by the time this is over, I feel I can say the drought will be far less serious than it currently is.
Forecast: A chance of a few light showers from Fresno north later this evening. Rain becoming likely during the early morning hours, mainly north of Kern County. Rain Tuesday and at times through Friday, heavy at times. Periods of rain Friday night through Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 44/56/47/55 | Reedley 46/57/45/56 | Dinuba 44/56/45/57 |
| Porterville 43/56/45/57 | Lindsay 43/56/47/57 | Delano 45/56/45/57 |
| Bakersfield 48/57/49/54 | Taft 50/58/49/54 | Arvin 48/58/47/57 |
| Lamont 47/58/47/57 | Pixley 47/58/46/56 | Tulare 45/55//46/56 |
| Woodlake 43/56/45/55 | Hanford 43/57/45/57 | Orosi 42/55/46/55 |
Wind Discussion: Winds this evening will be light then will increase out of the south/southeast at 10 to 20 mph later tonight with stronger gusts from Fresno northward. Winds Tuesday and Tuesday night will be mainly out of the southeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to near 35 mph possible, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts, interspersed with periods of lighter winds.
Rain As I mentioned in the summary, the weather pattern currently evolving is historically one of the wetter ones we’ll ever see. There are locations in Sequoia and Kings Canyons where precipitation estimates are between 10 and 15 inches from now through New Year’s Day. Rain will begin in Merced County by late evening, spreading slowly southward in the early morning hours, becoming locally heavy at times Tuesday and Tuesday night. On and off precipitation, locally heavy, can be expected for the next week to possibly ten days. Rainfall estimates for the valley floor are very impressive. Estimates for roughly the next week from Porterville northward on the east side range between 3 and 4 inches. Models for Porterville just over the next 36 hours call for roughly one and a half inches. These types of storms have a tendency of producing strong rain shadows, so the west side of the valley, particularly along Interstate 5, can expect between one and two inches. The estimates for the valley portion of Kern County are surprisingly high with the possibility of two to three inches in Bakersfield. Again, the two week model for the 3 through the 9 calls for additional wet weather.
Frost: Expect above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next report: December 27 morning
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