December 29, 2022
Light rain has spread over the San Joaquin Valley this morning. There is a high center roughly 2,000 miles to the west/southwest of Los Angeles, steering Pacific storms over the top of the high and into California. The first in the series is arriving now and it will drop another quarter to possibly up to half an inch of rain over the east side with lesser amounts elsewhere. Right on its heels is a powerful winter storm with an atmospheric river of air which extends from northwest Hawaii and will come on shore over northern and central California Friday night and Saturday with heavy rain and copious amounts of new snow up high. The freezing level over Oakland is currently 5,000 feet. As soon as the warmer second storm arrives Friday night, the snow level will rise to between 7,500 and 8,000 feet, meaning heavy rain will be falling on the Sierra Nevada on top of a large snow pack, generating run off issues. Periods of heavy rain will continue through Saturday night then will taper off, leading to a dry New Year’s Day and night. The next system will arrive Monday. this one isn’t quite as strong, nevertheless, this parade of storms will continue through at least Wednesday. The pattern of high pressure well southwest of its usual position will result in storms later next week, as well. One model for the latter part of next week has a strong low just off the central coast which, theoretically, could generate some strong winds. However, there’s too much evolution to these systems to add that to the forecast as of yet. It’s been quite some time since any month has delivered 4 inches of rain or more. After this storm passes through, Fresno will likely end up with between 4 and 5 inches for the month.
Forecast: Periods of light rain today. Rain tonight. A slight chance of showers Friday morning, otherwise partly cloudy. Rain likely Friday night through Saturday night, locally heavy at times. Partly cloudy New Year’s Day and night. Rain likely at times Monday and Monday night. A chance of showers Tuesday. Rain likely again Tuesday night and Wednesday, possibly locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Wednesday night and Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 57/46/60/52/61 | Reedley 57/47/59/54/58 | Dinuba 56/48/59/53/58 |
| Porterville 57/47/60/53/59 | Lindsay 57/47/60/52/60 | Delano 57/47/60/52/61 |
| Bakersfield 56/47/60/55/61 | Taft 55/48/61/53/60 | Arvin 57/48/61/53/61 |
| Lamont 56/46/61/53/61 | Pixley 56/46/60/54/61 | Tulare 55/45/59/52/60 |
| Woodlake 55/47/58/52/59 | Hanford 56/47/59/55/59 | Orosi 55/47/60/52/60 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Mostly cloudy 46/61 |
Monday
Rain likely 40/53 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 41/54 |
Wednesday
Rain likely 44/56 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 44/58 |
Two Week Outlook: January 4 through January 10: This model shows the storm door remaining open during this time frame with above average rainfall. Temperatures during this time frame are anticipated to be near seasonal averages.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the south/southeast at 8 to 15 mph. Winds tonight and Friday will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph Saturday.
Rain: This latest storm should drop another .25 to .33 on the east side of the valley for today on through Thursday night. A very temporary dry slot will occur Friday. Rain will return Friday night through Saturday night with possibly an inch to an inch and a half or so north of Kern County, between .25 to .75 along the west side and around .25 to .33 along the valley portion of Kern County. Sunday and Sunday night should be dry before the next storm arrives Monday through Monday night. There will be a chance of showers again Tuesday night. Rain will be likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Between today and January 3, as much as 2 to 3 inches of additional rain will be possible along the east side from roughly Porterville north, generally .50 to 1.00 along the west side, and .50 to .75 over the valley portion of Kern County. Both the ten day and two week models show a wide open storm door for additional chances of precipitation.
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/65% Porterville, 100%/74%
Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 0%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .08, Parlier, .11 Arvin .16, Porterville .09, Delano .10
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 48 Arvin 50 Porterville .46, Delano 46 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/37 Record Temperatures: 69/24
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1039 +85 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 4.45 148% of average, Monthly 3.79
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.95, 111% of average, Monthly: .1.27
Average Temperature This Month 45.5 -0.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 611, Parlier 742 Arvin 610 Belridge 675, Shafter 701, Stratford 705, Delano 725, Porterville 716 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:11 Sunset, 4:52, hours of daylight, 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 57 / 44 / 0.04 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 58 / 46 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 57 / 48 / T /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 59 / 46 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 57 / 47 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 58 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 56 / 46 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 58 / 44 / T /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 5.80 136 8.09 190 4.26 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 6.23 173 8.02 223 3.60 12.27
MERCED 0.00 4.81 143 5.60 166 3.37 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.57 86 1.42 47 2.99 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 4.45 148 5.00 166 3.01 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 3.29 144 4.31 189 2.28 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.02 1.95 111 3.48 198 1.76 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.38 195 4.48 367 1.22 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 7 M M 0.45 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 5.58 148 6.05 160 3.77 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.29 167 6.46 204 3.17 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.01 4.82 139 6.06 175 3.46 13.32
Next report: December 29 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.