December 30, 2022
Upper level high pressure remains in a stationary position roughly 2,000 miles west/southwest of Los Angeles. An atmospheric river wraps around the top of the high and currently comes on shore in northern California. A strong storm will move onshore later tonight, resulting in heavy amounts of rain Saturday and Saturday night. Precipitation estimates on high resolution models indicate as much as 1.50 to 2.00 may be recorded along the east side of the valley north of Kern County from tonight through Saturday night. That AR I alluded to stretches southwestward out over the ocean as far as just north of Hawaii. As the next embedded low pressure system moves into central California, snow levels will rise to around 7,500 to 8,000 feet, creating excessive run off. The next break in the action will come New Year’s Day and Sunday night before the next system arrives Monday and Monday night. This system will not be carrying as much water. From Tuesday through Friday, we will see storms move on shore every 24 to 36 hours or so for a continuation of very active weather. Medium range models show the same theme. High pressure is located well to the southwest of its usual position, allowing all those moisture laden Pacific storms to pound California from time to time.
Forecast: Light showers possible early this morning. Otherwise partly cloudy today and tonight. Rain spreading over the valley again tonight, continuing Saturday and Saturday night, locally heavy at times. A chance of showers New Year’s Day then becoming partly cloudy. Rain likely again Monday and Monday night with a chance of showers Tuesday. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Rain likely Wednesday through Friday at times interspersed with several hours of dry weather.
Temperatures:
Madera 61/52/62/54/62 | Reedley 62/52/61/44/53 | Dinuba 60/52/61/45/52 |
Porterville 62/53/61/44/53 | Lindsay 61/51/59//44/53 | Delano 61/53/62/47/52 |
Bakersfield 61/53/62/48/52 | Taft 61/52/62/45/52 | Arvin 61/53/59/45/53 |
Lamont 62/53/61/45/51 | Pixley 60/42/61/45/51 | Tulare 60/51/58/44/52 |
Woodlake 61/52/59/45/53 | Hanford 61/54/61/45/53 | Orosi 60/52/59/45/53 |
Seven Day Forecast
Monday
Partly cloudy 40/52 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 41/54
|
Wednesday
Rain likely 42/56 |
Thursday
Rain likely 45/58 |
Friday
Rain likely 42/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 6 through January 12: This model shows the storm door remaining open during this time frame with above average rainfall. Temperatures during this time frame are anticipated to be near seasonal averages.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the south and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Saturday through Sunday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts as high as 30 mph will be possible from Fresno County north. Winds Monday will continue out of the southeast at 8 to 10 mph.
Rain: Moisture laden Pacific storms continue to ride the AR into northern and central California. One arrived yesterday and is moving on today for a few hours of dry weather. A much stronger system will arrive later tonight and will continue through Saturday night. Precipitation estimates for this event will range from 1 to 2 inches at most locations on the east side upwards to 1 inch on the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties. The valley portion of Kern County will pick up upwards of 1 inch with locally more. The chance of rain will decrease Tuesday then the next system will move in from the west/northwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. There will likely be periods of rain Wednesday night through Friday interspersed with periods of dry weather.
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/65% Porterville, 100%/74%
Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 0%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .08, Parlier, .11 Arvin .16, Porterville .09, Delano .10
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 48 Arvin 50 Porterville .46, Delano 46 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/37 Record Temperatures: 69/24
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1039 +85 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 4.45 148% of average, Monthly 3.79
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.95, 111% of average, Monthly: .1.27
Average Temperature This Month 45.5 -0.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 611, Parlier 742 Arvin 610 Belridge 675, Shafter 701, Stratford 705, Delano 725, Porterville 716 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:11 Sunset, 4:52, hours of daylight, 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 57 / 44 / 0.04 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 58 / 46 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 57 / 48 / T /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 59 / 46 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 57 / 47 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 58 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 56 / 46 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 58 / 44 / T /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 5.80 136 8.09 190 4.26 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 6.23 173 8.02 223 3.60 12.27
MERCED 0.00 4.81 143 5.60 166 3.37 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.57 86 1.42 47 2.99 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 4.45 148 5.00 166 3.01 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 3.29 144 4.31 189 2.28 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.02 1.95 111 3.48 198 1.76 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.38 195 4.48 367 1.22 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 7 M M 0.45 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 5.58 148 6.05 160 3.77 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.29 167 6.46 204 3.17 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.01 4.82 139 6.06 175 3.46 13.32
Next report: December 30 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.