December 31, 2022
The latest atmospheric river of air is moving on shore in northern California from roughly Santa Clara on the south to Sonoma on the north. Along this band of energy are strong, gusty winds and heavy rain. This whole area of active weather will slowly sag southward during the course of the day with rain and gusty winds settling south, especially this afternoon and evening. Most of the action will slide east of the area by New Year’s morning, so it appears New Year’s Day will be dry. The next system will move in Monday. it’s weaker, however light showers will spread over the area Monday and will last well into Monday evening, tapering off Tuesday only to increase late Tuesday night. A much stronger storm will arrive Wednesday through Thursday night. Periods of lighter showers can be expected Thursday night and Friday with a chance of rain again Saturday. Upper level high pressure is still situated about 1,800 miles to the west/southwest of LA with a train of storms riding over the top of this high and currently headed into north/central California. Again, this band will sag slowly southward today. Medium range models continue to show a band of almost west to east trajectory moving inland in various areas of California for the next week to ten days. There will be dry days, but precipitation estimates continue to be very heavy. From December 30 through January 5, much of the southern Sierra Nevada will pick up an additional 8 to 10 inches of rain. From Fresno north along the east side up through Merced and Modesto, as much as 2 to 3 additional inches of rain is expected. Tulare County could potentially pick up another 2 inches with 1 to 1.50 over the valley portion of Kern County and portions of western Merced and Fresno Counties and Kings County.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. Rain spreading southward this afternoon, continuing tonight. Dry New Year’s Day and night. Generally light rain Monday and Monday night. A small chance of showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rain likely Wednesday through Wednesday night. Rain likely again Thursday with periods of rain Thursday night through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 62/45/50/39/52 | Reedley 62/44/52/37/52 | Dinuba 61/44/62/37/52 |
| Porterville 62/45/52/37/53 | Lindsay 61/45/51/37/53 | Delano 61/44/62/38/52 |
| Bakersfield 61/45/62/38/51 | Taft 64/45/52/39/51 | Arvin 62/44/62/39/51 |
| Lamont 61/44/62/36/53 | Pixley 61/45/51/36/52 | Tulare 60/45/51/36/53 |
| Woodlake 63/46/52/39/51 | Hanford 61/45/62/36/52 | Orosi 61/45/51/37/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Chance of showers 39/52 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 41/54
|
Thursday
Rain likely 46/57 |
Friday
Rain likely 41/56 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 39/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 7 through January 13: This model shows pretty much of a zonal flow across the Pacific in the form of a moisture rich AR aimed somewhere at California. The chance of above average rainfall is high with above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds will continue to be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph through Sunday. Winds will decrease Monday to 8 to 15 mph and 5 to 10 mph Tuesday.
Rain: Without getting too repetitive, the multiple storm outlook we’re currently under will continue for at least the next week to possibly ten days. A zonal flow continues across the eastern Pacific. Storms of varying intensities are riding this flow right into California. It’s difficult to determine exactly when one storm ends and the next begins. The bottom line is there will be short periods of dry weather interspersed with periods of rain for the foreseeable future.
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/84% Porterville, 100%/97%
Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 0%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .10, Parlier, .9 Arvin .16, Porterville .08, Delano .11
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 50 Arvin 50 Porterville .47, Delano 48 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/37 Record Temperatures: 69/23
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1065 +71 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 4.82 151% of average, Monthly 4.16
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.98, 112% of average, Monthly: .1.32
Average Temperature This Month 46.3 +0.3 +0.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 611, Parlier 742 Arvin 610 Belridge 675, Shafter 701, Stratford 705, Delano 728, Porterville 716 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:11 Sunset, 4:54, hours of daylight, 9:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 58 / 57 / 0.11 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 60 / 58 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 59 / 57 / 0.09 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 58 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 63 / 58 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 66 / 54 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 62 / 56 / 0.04 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 62 / 57 / 0.03 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 64 / 60 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.21 6.58 149 8.21 186 4.42 13.45
MODESTO 0.06 6.75 180 8.15 217 3.76 12.27
MERCED 0.19 5.32 152 5.79 165 3.51 11.80
MADERA 0.05 2.63 84 1.46 47 3.12 10.79
FRESNO 0.12 4.81 153 5.21 165 3.15 10.99
HANFORD 0.11 3.49 146 4.60 192 2.39 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.98 107 3.55 192 1.85 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.38 184 4.50 349 1.29 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 6 M M 0.47 2.20
SALINAS 0.11 5.74 147 6.11 156 3.91 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.35 161 7.12 214 3.33 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.02 4.84 133 6.09 168 3.63 13.32
Next report: December 31 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.