January 2, 2023
Light showers have spread across the valley ahead of a weak warm front which has moved on shore along the Coast Range. Behind the warm front is a cold front which will drop the heaviest rain from this weak system. Most locations will record no more than .25 or so on the valley floor. The back side of the system will clear the Sierra Nevada by late tonight, giving us a rare dry day Tuesday, lasting until Tuesday night. The next low in the parade is intense with a 957 millibar low center. Looking at that another way, it would be the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane. The parent low will move northeastward then will spread a cold front into California Wednesday and Thursday. Strong winds will buffet the northern California coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Winds will also be strong up the Sacramento Valley and over the northern and central Sierra Nevada. This system will dump another round of significant rain on the valley floor. Since the center of circulation will be farther north than previous storms, amounts north of Kern County along the east side will probably range anywhere from .75 to 1.25. this system will cover a massive amount of real estate, so it will be later Thursday night before it heads off far enough to the east to take precipitation out of the forecast. We will also experience some gusty winds. However, since we’ll be so far from the main low, winds will probably be in the 10 to 20 mph range. It still looks like Friday and Friday night will be rain free, and possibly even Saturday. The next storm will take a more northerly path. Even so, we will have a reasonable chance at more rain Saturday night into Monday. the new 2 week model shows a lower latitude storm track, so whatever’s out there will likely affect central California.
Forecast: Periods of light rain tonight, ending after midnight. Partly cloudy Tuesday through Tuesday evening. A chance of showers after midnight Tuesday night. Rain likely at times Wednesday through Thursday. A chance of rain for a time Thursday night. Becoming partly cloudy Friday. Mostly cloudy Friday night leading to a chance of showers late Saturday afternoon, mainly from Fresno north. A chance of showers from Saturday night through Monday, mainly north of Kern County.
Temperatures:
| Madera 41/57/41/60 | Reedley 43/57/42/59 | Dinuba 41/56/42/56 |
| Porterville 42/57/43/60 | Lindsay 41/57/42/59 | Delano 44/58/43/60 |
| Bakersfield 44/57/44/61 | Taft 42/56/45/59 | Arvin 43/58/42/61 |
| Lamont 42/57/42/60 | Pixley 42/56/41/60 | Tulare 41/56/42/56 |
| Woodlake 41/57/41/57 | Hanford 43/58/43/59 | Orosi 42/56/42/58 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at around 5 to 12 mph through Tuesday night. Winds Wednesday will remain out of the southeast, increasing to 10 to 20 mph later in the day. Winds Wednesday night will increase out of the southeast at 15 to 25 mph at times with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north, continuing on Thursday.
Rain: Light rain has spread over the Coast Range and over parts of the valley as of the time of this writing. The warm front will be followed by a cold front later this evening, which will keep periods of light rain going through later this evening. This system pales in comparison to some we’ve had over the past few weeks. Even so, .10 to .25 is plausible for the valley north of Kern County with less than .10 over the valley portion of Kern County. A wedge of dry weather will arrive Tuesday, lasting through most of Tuesday night. The next system upstream is a major leaguer. The very strong dynamics with this system will move into northern California. Even though the strongest dynamics will be just to our north, we still should pick up anywhere from .75 to 1.25 between Wednesday and Thursday night north of Kern County, less than .50 over the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County. Friday will be dry, and possibly well into Saturday then yet another system will spread rain over the northern half of California Saturday night and at times through Monday, mainly north of Kern County.
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.