January 2, 2023
The leading edge of the next weather system off shore is roughly 75 miles off the central coast. Doppler radar indicates there’s a fairly large area of light rain which will reach the coast over the next several hours, spreading into the valley this afternoon. The system’s dynamics are considerably weather than some of the recent systems, but it still has the potential of dropping anywhere from .10 to .25 north of Kern County. By late tonight, the backside of this storm will have cleared the Sierra Nevada, resulting in a dry day Tuesday. Clouds will begin to increase yet again Tuesday night as a mammoth storm system with a 950 millibar center of circulation approaches the northern California coast. This system will generate strong winds over most of northern California along with heavy rain. The bulk of this system’s energy will be over northern California, but will still spread precipitation over all of central California. Currently it appears another .50 to 1.00 of rain will accumulate on the valley floor. The precipitation will end later Thursday night leading to a rare dry day Friday and Friday night. Over the weekend, a series of storms will result in periods of showers Saturday through Monday. the ten day and the two week models continue to favor Pacific storms moving into the lower latitude, or in other words, California.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. Rain spreading in from the west later this afternoon. Periods of rain through later this evening. Becoming mostly cloudy later tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Tuesday evening then a chance of rain later Tuesday night. Rain likely Wednesday and at times through Thursday, possibly locally heavy at times. Rain through late Thursday evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. A chance of showers at times Saturday through Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 53/39/57/40/59 | Reedley 52/40/56/41/58 | Dinuba 51/40/56/41/58 |
| Porterville 53/40/57/41/58 | Lindsay 52/40/56/40/59 | Delano 52/41/57/42/59 |
| Bakersfield 52/41/56/43/60 | Taft 50/41/54/45/60 | Arvin 52/42/56/43/59 |
| Lamont 53/42/57/42/59 | Pixley 52/40/56/40/58 | Tulare 51/39/55/42/58 |
| Woodlake 52/40/57/42/58 | Hanford 53/41/56/42/58 | Orosi 51/39/56/40/58 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Rain likely 49/59 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 42/58 |
Saturday
Showers 36/56 |
Sunday
Showers 39/57 |
Monday
Showers 41/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 9 through January 15; This model shows high pressure southwest of it’s average position for this time of year. With generally a west/northwest flow, temperatures will be near normal. The chance of rain will remain relatively high, especially from Fresno County north.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at around 5 to 12 mph through Tuesday night. Winds Wednesday will remain out of the southeast, increasing to 10 to 20 mph later in the day. Winds Wednesday night will increase out of the southeast at 15 to 25 mph at times with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north.
Rain: The leading edge of precipitation from the next storm is just off the central coast and will overspread the Coast Range as it moves into the valley later this afternoon. This system is weak, especially compared to previous storms and will likely drop no more than .10 to .25 inches of rain in central California and no more than .10 over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry conditions can be expected later tonight and Tuesday. A powerful low will approach the Oregon/northern California coast Tuesday night, spreading rain over the valley Wednesday morning. This is a large storm in scope, with precipitation probably lasting well into Thursday night. Even though the best dynamics will be to our northwest, possibly another .50 to 1.00 will accumulate north of Kern County, .33 to .75 is possible in western Merced and Fresno Counties and most of Kings County. Upward of .50 is possible over the valley portion of Kern County. Locally more is possible in any given area. Another 2 to 3 inches is possible below the snow line of the southern Sierra Nevada. The rain will finally come to an end by late Thursday night with a rare dry day Friday and Friday night. Weaker systems will move from west to east across northern and central California over the weekend for continued chances of showers.
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/60% Porterville, 100%/86%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 20%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .20, Parlier, .11 Arvin .17, Porterville .07, Delano .12
Soil temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 54 Arvin 55 Porterville 52, Delano 53 *=data missing.
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/37 Record Temperatures: 70/20
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1096 +48 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 5.42 165% of average, Monthly .17
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 2.37, 123% of average, Monthly: .1.32
Average Temperature This Month 48.5 +2.5 +0.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 611, Parlier 742 Arvin 617 Belridge 678, Shafter 704, Stratford 710, Delano 730, Porterville 718 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:12 Sunset, 4:58, hours of daylight, 9:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 59 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 57 / 37 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 56 / 39 / T /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 58 / 36 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 60 / 36 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 56 / 41 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 56 / 37 / 0.23 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 52 / 38 / 0.29 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON T 9.74 213 8.21 179 4.58 13.45
MODESTO 0.08 8.21 210 8.15 208 3.91 12.27
MERCED 0.12 6.33 174 5.79 159 3.64 11.80
MADERA 0.01 2.90 89 1.46 45 3.25 10.79
FRESNO 0.17 5.42 165 5.21 158 3.29 10.99
HANFORD 0.21 3.86 154 4.60 184 2.50 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.02 2.37 123 3.55 184 1.93 6.36
BISHOP 0.10 3.12 229 4.50 331 1.36 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.03 6 M M 0.49 2.20
SALINAS 0.04 6.31 155 6.11 150 4.06 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.25 179 7.12 203 3.50 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.01 5.96 157 6.09 160 3.80 13.32
Next report: January 2 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.