January 3, 2023
It’s not a bad day for early January. As of the time of this writing, warmer locations were teasing with 60 degrees. Today was quite literally the calm before the storm. A mammoth Pacific storm with a center of circulation measured at 960 millibars, the lowest pressure we’ve seen this winter.
This behemoth has all the key ingredients of a storm that can produce flooding and wind damage. Winds along the north coast of California may reach hurricane force with strong gusty winds in central California as well. Fortunately, though, not to hurricane status. The wind situation is discussed below in the wind summary.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a storm off shore with almost perfect structure. A large comma shaped cloud flanks its eastern and southeastern borders then becomes a pineapple connection, ending up north of Hawaii.
In the meantime, a feed of cold air from the north Pacific wraps around its north and northwestern sides. Flood watches are up from one end of the state to the other. One bulletin from the weather bureau site in Oxnard warms of rainfall rates nearing 1 inch per hour with anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of rain along the southwestern facing slopes in the mountains. Two to 4 inches could easily fall below the snow level, which is quite high for this event, creating rising streams and rivers. High resolution models estimate .67 for Bakersfield, .93 for Porterville, and 1.34 for Fresno with higher amounts further north. Once the rains begin Wednesday, it will be later Thursday evening before the next brief dry slot shapes up.
Expect dry weather Friday and Friday night, possibly even into Saturday morning then the next system will arrive Saturday evening with rain at times through Sunday and yet another one, this one stronger, will sweep through Monday through Tuesday. Medium range models going out into the middle of the month show well above average precipitation continuing. It appears this year is the one we’ve been waiting for to end the drought, at least temporarily.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight. Rain becoming likely Wednesday, locally heavy at times. Rain continuing Wednesday through Thursday, locally heavy at times. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday. Rain likely through the late evening hours Thursday, then becoming mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy Friday through Saturday. Rain at times Saturday night through Sunday, mainly north of Kern County. Periods of rain Sunday night. Rain at times Monday through Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 43/61/51/57 | Reedley 44/60/53/57 | Dinuba 43/62/52/58 |
| Porterville 43/61/51/57 | Lindsay 44/62/58/58 | Delano 44/63/53/59 |
| Bakersfield 46/64/52/59 | Taft 48/62/53/57 | Arvin 45/64/52/60 |
| Lamont 44/64/53/59 | Pixley 43/62/51/57 | Tulare 43/60/52/57 |
| Woodlake 44/61/51/57 | Hanford 44/62/53/58 | Orosi 43/61/51/57 |
Wind Discussion: The strongest storm of the winter so far has the potential for strong winds in parts of the valley, especially up the west side and quite possibly the Kern County portion of the valley floor. Strong pressure differences will increase Wednesday and Wednesday night with winds increasing to the 30 to 40 mph range with gusts to 50 as far north as Bakersfield. It’s possible winds may gust as high as 70 mph at the bottom of the Grapevine. For this forecast, we’ll go with a 60% chance of strong winds in Kern County. Winds will die down Thursday to generally less than 20 mph. Winds Thursday night and Friday will average 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: Rainfall amounts from this next big event will be extremely difficult to estimate. Powerful storms like the one approaching the coast generate strong rain shadows. The strongest rain shadow goes from southwest to northeast all the way into central and southern Tulare County. That may very well be the case this time around. Even with the rain shadow, estimates for Porterville, for example, is .93, Bakersfield .67, Fresno 1.34. and as much as 2.00 in Merced County. Rain will continue well into Thursday evening with dry weather from late Thursday night and possibly through Saturday. There will be periods of rain Saturday night through Tuesday interspersed with periods of dry weather as two more storms approach the coast. Medium range models continue to show a favorable pattern for Pacific storms to move into California.
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next report: January 4 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.