January 4, 2023
How would you like to be picnicking on top of Grapevine Peak this afternoon as the observation at noon reported winds of 46 mph, gusting to 84. Unfortunately, as of the time of this report, the report for the bottom of the Grapevine was unavailable. However, Digier Rd. Hilltop at the base of the Tehachapi Mountains reported a 60 mph gust and winds are gusting to 26 mph as far north as Bakersfield and will no doubt increase. The center of circulation of a massive Pacific storm is located roughly 350 miles west of the California/Oregon border. Satellite imagery depicts a long trail of moisture known as an atmospheric river stretching from near Hawaii northeastward across the Pacific then feeding into the southeast quadrant of the storm. In the meantime, cold air is digging southward along the low, giving it all the ingredients of a powerful winter storm. The central pressure of the low at last report was 960 millibars. If this were a tropical system, it would be a hurricane. The parent low will continue to move across the northeast then will turn northward along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The cod front will move through central California late tonight and tomorrow morning with heavy precipitation. the snow level will initially rise to 8,000 feet then eventually fall to 5,000 feet as the coldest air arrives. Three to five feet of snow is expected between now and late Thursday night. Two to four inches of rain will be tallied up below the snow level. Valley rainfall potential is discussed below. Another element of this event will be the possible formation of cut off thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday evening. Precipitation will end by Thursday night. Dry weather will continue Friday through Saturday before a much weaker system affects the valley Saturday night and Sunday. Yet another full blown Pacific storm will dominate ouro Monday/Tuesday time frame with more active weather later next week.
Forecast: Rain spreading over the valley later tonight along with gusty southeast winds, locally heavy, especially after midnight. Rain locally heavy Thursday morning. Showers Thursday afternoon with a chance of scattered, heavy thunderstorms. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday evening, ending by midnight. Becoming partly cloudy late. Partly cloudy Friday through Saturday. A chance of light showers Saturday night through Sunday, especially north of Kern County. Rain Monday and at times Monday through Tuesday, possibly locally heavy at times. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 54/58/43/59 | Reedley 54/59/43/56 | Dinuba 54/57/43/58 |
| Porterville 55/59/44/57 | Lindsay 53/57/42/56 | Delano 55/60/44/55 |
| Bakersfield 56/60/44/56 | Taft 53/59/42/54 | Arvin 55/59/44//55 |
| Lamont 56/58/43/55 | Pixley 56/57/43/55 | Tulare 53/57/42/57 |
| Woodlake 53/57/42/58 | Hanford 55/58/42/59 | Orosi 54/58/42/58 |
Wind Discussion: Winds are currently just ripping over the Kern County mountains. The latest wind information from Grapevine Peak was winds of 73 mph, down from 84 mph the previous hour. Now the key will be to try to discern how much of these winds will make it down slope to the valley floor. Digier Rd. Hilltop near the base of the Tehachapi southwest of Bakersfield has reported gusts to 60 mph.. an extremely tight pressure gradient exists between intense low pressure off the Oregon border and southern California. Gusts in excess of 70 mph are certainly possible tonight and Thursday morning near the bottom of the Grapevine Even as far north as Bakersfield, winds could approach the 50 mph mark. The west side of the valley especially along the I-5 corridor should observe wins of 30 to 40 mph with gusts approaching 60. Most of the remainder of Tulare, Fresno, Madera, and Merced Counties will observe winds in the 20 to 30 mph range with stronger gusts. These winds will quickly decrease to around 10 to 20 mph Thursday afternoon and evening.
Rain: Just light, scattered showers were occurring over central California as of 1:00pm. However, the cold front is well off shore and will spread moderate to heavy rain tonight through Thursday morning, locally heavy at times. There will be the possibility of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening which, if they develop, would be accompanied by very heavy rain. All the rain will have ended by midnight Thursday night. As discussed in previous reports rainfall estimates will be a risky proposition to forecast. Major winter storms…and on the scale of 1—10 this storm is a 10…cause rain shadows to develop over Kern County then spread northeastward into Kings and Tulare Counties. From eastern Fresno County northward to Merced County, between 1 and 1.50 could fall between now through Thursday evening. Kings County should pick up between .50 to .57. Kern County will only pick up between .25 and .75 of an inch. Friday through Saturday should be dry then a much weaker weather system will spread light showers over the valley Saturday night and Sunday, mainly north of Kern County. The next major winter storm will arrive with yet more rain at times through Tuesday, locally heavy at times.
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next report: January 5 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.