January 6, 2023
A rather tranquil morning. The mammoth storm that affected us yesterday with rain, thunderstorms, and wind is now in the history books. For now, we have a weak ridge of high pressure which followed the cold front in last night and will give us a dry stretch lasting into Saturday night. This next system is weak by comparison. Even so, light rain will again spread over the valley Saturday night. It appears the southern limit is Kern County. A much more substantial event will affect central California Monday and Tuesday. This one will another so called atmospheric river moving across the Pacific from southwest to northeast underneath the parent low. As a result, rainfall in the mountains will be heavy with substantial amounts of precipitation on the valley floor. The next break in the weather won’t occur until midweek as the Monday Tuesday event rotates off to the northeast. With a little bit of luck, some dry weather will make a brief come back Wednesday into Thursday before the next storm arrives Thursday and Thursday night. Currently, it’s unclear how far south this one will advance, but considering the trends of this terrific winter, but my bet is on the wet side. It’s amazing. Medium range models have shown variations of the same old thing with the storm track unusually far south, resulting in nice amounts of precipitation down to Kern County. The latest precipitation estimates from the California/Nevada river people predict that over the next seven days, another 8 to 10 inches could fall over the wetter locations over the Sierra Nevada.
Forecast: After the patchy fog burns off, it will be partly then mostly cloudy today. Mostly cloudy tonight and Saturday. Rain becoming likely Saturday night with rain likely at times Sunday and Sunday night. Rain Monday through Tuesday night, possibly locally heavy at times mostly cloudy on Wednesday and Wednesday night with a chance of showers Thursday, mainly from Fresno County north. A chance of rain Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 56/38/58/44/59 | Reedley 57/39/58/42/58 | Dinuba 55/38/57/43/59 |
| Porterville 57/39/57/46/57 | Lindsay 56/37/57/43/57 | Delano 57/40/57/46/58 |
| Bakersfield 56/43/58/45/56 | Taft 56/44/58/47/56 | Arvin 58/42/58/45/59 |
| Lamont 58/42/58/43/58 | Pixley 56/38/58/43/59 | Tulare 56/48/57/44/57 |
| Woodlake 57/39/58/43/58 | Hanford 56/41/57/45/57 | Orosi 56/38/57/44/56 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Rain likely 47/59 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 50/61 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 43/58 |
Thursday
Pm rain possible 41/56 |
Friday
Chance of rain 42/60 |
Two Week Outlook: January 12 through January 18; This model shows high pressure southwest of its average position for this time of year. With generally a west/northwest flow, temperatures will be near normal. The chance of rain will remain relatively high.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today and tonight will be generally at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday through Sunday will be out of the east to southeast at around 5 to 12 mph. Winds Monday will increase to 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts from Fresno north.
Rain: Expect dry weather today through Saturday with mainly light rain spreading over the valley Saturday night through Sunday night at times. A stronger storm will affect our region Monday through Tuesday then taper off by midweek for perhaps another day or two of dry weather. Models show more rain moving in late next week. the California/Nevada forecast center is estimating an additional 8 to 10 inches of precipitation from today through January 11 over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. This model also projects 3 to 4 inches of additional rain along the 99 corridor of Fresno and Merced Counties with 2 to 3 inches in the Porterville area of Tulare County and an inch or more over the valley portion of Kern County. If this comes to pass, no doubt more flooding will occur.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual humidity values for Bakersfield 97%/58%. Porterville, Mid to upper 97%59%. Mid afternoon dew points mid to upper 40s Kern ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .29, Parlier, .21, Arvin .22, Porterville .19, Delano .24
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 52 Arvin 53, Porterville 50, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 54/37 Record Temperatures: 73/17
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1152 +28 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 6.34 177% of average, Monthly 1.09
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 2.60, 121% of average, Monthly: .14
Average Temperature This Month 50.3 +4.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 630, Parlier 765, Arvin 642 Belridge 706, Shafter 732, Stratford 739, Delano 758, Porterville 738 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:12 Sunset, 4:59, hours of daylight, 9:46.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 53 / 1.12 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 66 / 55 / 0.13 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 54 / 0.23 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 69 / 54 / 0.28 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 68 / 54 / 0.21 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 70 / 55 / 0.04 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 68 / 53 / 0.28 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 69 / 50 / 0.07 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.22 10.94 223 8.21 167 4.91 13.45
MODESTO 0.29 9.23 218 8.15 193 4.23 12.27
MERCED 0.91 7.91 201 5.79 147 3.94 11.80
MADERA 0.18 3.32 95 1.46 42 3.51 10.79
FRESNO 0.41 6.32 177 5.21 146 3.58 10.99
HANFORD 0.33 4.52 166 4.60 168 2.73 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.11 2.60 124 3.55 170 2.09 6.36
BISHOP 0.52 3.66 239 4.50 294 1.53 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.20 38 M M 0.53 2.20
SALINAS 0.18 6.84 157 6.11 140 4.37 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.35 7.46 194 7.12 185 3.84 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.06 6.15 148 6.09 147 4.15 13.32
Next report: January 6 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.