January 7, 2023
The elements are shaping up to one that will no doubt bring significant flooding to the area. We will be dealing with two separate storms through Tuesday night. The first is pretty weak and will spread light rain over most of the area this afternoon and tonight. The main channel of energy with this system will move into California with much lesser amounts of rain. Storm number 2 is quite intense. As the center of circulation approaches the central coast Monday, strong differences in pressure will begin to generate strong gusty winds through much of central California. Not only will this storm generate strong winds, it has the potential to be the wettest storm in what has turned out to be the wettest period we’ve seen in many years. High resolution models indicate the east side of the valley from northern Tulare County north could pic up 2 to 3 inches of rain from now Tuesday evening. I’m a bit skeptical of this as it’s very rare to measure that much in such a short period of time. An inch or two seems more plausible. More in the rain summary below. The chance of showers will last well into Tuesday night, This system will also be accompanied by an atmospheric river of air which will enhance the possibility of a big rain event. With a little luck our weather will turn dry from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Models haven’t come together yet on another event for this coming weekend
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers from mainly Merced County north. Rain likely tonight, mainly after midnight. Periods of light rain Sunday. Rain likely Sunday night, mainly after midnight. Rain likely Monday, locally heavy at times. Showers lasting into Tuesday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday night. a chance of showers Friday, mainly during the
Temperatures:
| Madera 59/48/60/50/60 | Reedley 61/47/60/51/61 | Dinuba 60/48/61/51/61 |
| Porterville 63/48/62/51/61` | Lindsay 61/46/61/50/62 | Delano 62/49/61/50/62 |
| Bakersfield 62/50/62/51/62 | Taft 62/50/59/52/62 | Arvin 62/49/62/50/62 |
| Lamont 61/48/61/50/62 | Pixley 61/47/60/49/61 | Tulare 60/49/60/50/60 |
| Woodlake 59/48/60//51/61 | Hanford 62/49/60/51/61 | Orosi 60/48/60/50/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Rain likely 51/65 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 42/58 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 41/57 |
Friday
Pm showers 43/59 |
Saturday
Chance of rain 43/60 |
Two Week Outlook: January 14 through January 20; This model shows high pressure southwest of its average position for this time of year. With generally a west/northwest flow, temperatures will be near normal. The chance of rain will remain relatively high.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph. winds Sunday will become out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph by evening. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 mph with stronger gusts possible. Gusts to 35 mph will be possible along the west side. Winds Monday will continue out of the southeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, mainly along the west side. Winds Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 15 to25 mph with gusts to 35 mph possible.
Rain: Two weaher systems will affect us over the next 72 hours. Light showers are possible today, mainly from Merced County north. Light rain will spread down the valley through tonight and continue at times through Sunday. A strong, moisture laden Pacific storm will spread rain over the region once again Monday through Tuesday evening with possible embedded thunderstorms. High resolution models show a very impressive system. As much as 2 to3 inches of rain is possible over Madera, Merced, and Fresno Counties, especially along the east side. One to two inches is possible in much of Tulare County, especially near the foothills. One to two inches is also possible for Kings County and .50 to .75. Again, this is for Monday through Tuesday night. Currently Wednesday through Thursday evening appear to be dry then the next weather system will approach the valley later Friday night with a good chance of rain Saturday.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual humidity values for Bakersfield 97%/58%. Porterville, Mid to upper 97%59%.
Mid afternoon dew points:Low to mid 40s. Kern: low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .31, Parlier, .26, Arvin .33, Porterville .23, Delano .27
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 52 Arvin 52, Porterville 50, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 54/37 Record Temperatures: 71/20
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1167 +24 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 6.34 174% of average, Monthly 1.09
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 2.60, 122% of average, Monthly: .14
Average Temperature This Month 52.4 +4.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 634, Parlier 765, Arvin 642 Belridge 708, Shafter 734, Stratford 740, Delano 760, Porterville 738 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:12 Sunset, 4:59, hours of daylight, 9:47.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 58 / 45 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 59 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 58 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 59 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 58 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 59 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 57 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 58 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 10.97 219 8.21 164 5.00 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.29 215 8.15 189 4.32 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.91 197 5.79 144 4.01 11.80
MADERA 0.00 3.32 93 1.46 41 3.58 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.34 174 5.21 143 3.65 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.52 162 4.60 165 2.79 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.60 122 3.55 167 2.13 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.66 233 4.50 287 1.57 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.23 43 M M 0.54 2.20
SALINAS M 6.84 154 6.11 137 4.45 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.46 190 7.12 182 3.92 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.98 188 6.09 144 4.24 13.32
Nest report: January 7 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.