January 10, 2023
Tremendous amounts of rain have fallen from the current storm. The only location in the valley to pick up less than 1.00 of rain so far is Bakersfield at .82. in the rainfall discussion below are several rainfall totals from the valley and a few from the mountains. The cold front from the current storm is now moving on shore into the Bay Area and will soon enter the northern San Joaquin Valley. There were two separate tornado warnings up towards Modesto during the early morning hours and currently there are thunderstorms pounding Merced County and parts of Madera County. The precipitation pattern today will be much more variable as opposed to the relentless rain of yesterday. the center of the parent low is just off the northern California coast and will move into the northern part of the state today. As it does, numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across the valley. The balloon sounding above Oakland a short time ago indicated a freezing level of 5,600 feet, which is actually fairly high for a winter storm event. Nevertheless, small hail will be likely with any thunderstorms. The low will be far enough to the east after tonight to almost take precipitation out of the forecast. However, I’m hesitant to completely take showers out of the forecast as models yesterday began to pick up on a secondary wave of low pressure moving across northern and central California Wednesday. We’ll finally have a dry day Thursday and probably Friday. Th next Pacific storm may spread precipitation over the valley as early as Friday night. Models are still indicating another series of storms will move into the growing area Saturday with precipitation on and off all the way through Tuesday of next week with the possibility of more systems moving in from the west up through the 19th. The GFS model continues to show upper level high pressure finally moving in from the west around the 20th for the beginning of a dry weather pattern.
Forecast: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Showers tonight. A chance of showers, mainly from Fresno north, Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday through Friday. A chance of showers Friday night, mainly after midnight. Rain likely at times Saturday and Saturday night. periods of rain Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night and Monday. showers likely Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 58/40/56/41/61 | Reedley 58/43/56/41/62 | Dinuba 57/40/56/41/63 |
| Porterville 59/41/56/43/63 | Lindsay 58/40/54//41/62 | Delano 58/41/56/43/63 |
| Bakersfield 59/43/56/44/64 | Taft 58/44/55/44/63 | Arvin 59/42/56/42/64 |
| Lamont 59//42/55/42/64 | Pixley 57/41/56/41/62 | Tulare 57/40/54/41/62 |
| Woodlake 58/40/54/41/62 | Hanford 58//43/56/41/63 | Orosi 57/40/55/40/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Pm showers 42/62 |
Saturday
Rain likely 45/63 |
Sunday
Rain likely 46/60 |
Monday
Chance of showers 44/57 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 42/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 14 through January 20; This model shows high pressure southwest of its average position for this time of year. With generally a west/northwest flow, temperatures will be near normal. The chance of rain will remain relatively high.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Gusty southeast winds will continue at 15 to 30 mph at times with stronger gusts possible, mainly along the west side. Winds tonight will decrease to about 8 to 15 mph tonight and Wednesday. Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be variable to12 mph. another round of breezy weather is due this weekend but not to the velocity of the current storm.
Rain Discussion: The following are storm totals, most as of 5:00am: Bakersfield .82, Shafter 1.20, Delano 1.26, Porterville 1.62, Tulare 1.23, Lemoore 1.75, Hanford 1.40, Exeter 1.61, Visalia 1.19, Fresno 1.85. Clovis 2.34, and Merced 2.62.
In the mountains: Wawona 8.06, Bass Lake 6.55,, Huntington Lake 5.26, Shaver Lake 9.33, Wishon Dam 9.75, Hume lake 9.77, Giant Forest 9.00, Camp Nelson 7.14, and Johnsondale 6,92.
Instead of the continues rainfall of yesterday, today’s will be showery. As a pool of cold and very unstable air moves overhead, heavy showers will break out with a fairly high chance of thunderstorms. Showers will continue tonight but will taper off after midnight. I’m going to keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast for Wednesday, mainly from Fresno County north. Dry weather will finally return for a short time Wednesday night through Friday. The chance of rain will return Friday night, mainly after midnight with rain likely at times Saturday night through Sunday and a chance of showers again Monday and Tuesday.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/86%, Delano 94%77%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .26, Parlier, .29, Arvin .46, Porterville .28, Delano .31 Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 52 Arvin 54, Porterville 51, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 55/37 Record Temperatures: 68/18
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1194 -9Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 8.10, 303% of average, Monthly 2.85
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.41, 210% of average, Monthly: 1.06
Average Temperature This Month 52.0 +6.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 634, Parlier 784, Arvin 657 Belridge 730, Shafter 755, Stratford 763, Delano 779, Porterville 757 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:11 Sunset, 5:02, hours of daylight, 9:50.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 59 / 54 / 1.58 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 59 / 58 / 0.30 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 59 / 57 / 1.21 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 61 / 58 / 1.29 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 60 / 56 / 0.84 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 96 : 64 / 54 / 0.80 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 60 / 56 / 1.09 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 61 / 57 / 1.48 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 1.00 12.27 233 8.21 156 5.26 13.45
MODESTO 0.84 10.48 229 8.15 178 4.58 12.27
MERCED 0.81 9.36 220 5.82 137 4.25 11.80
MADERA 0.36 3.88 103 1.52 40 3.78 10.79
FRESNO 1.26 7.83 202 5.21 134 3.88 10.99
HANFORD 0.94 5.55 187 4.60 155 2.97 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.18 2.79 124 3.55 158 2.25 6.36
BISHOP 2.43 6.21 365 4.50 265 1.70 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.23 40 M M 0.57 2.20
SALINAS 0.65 7.49 159 6.11 130 4.70 12.58
PASO ROBLES 2.02 9.77 233 7.12 170 4.20 12.15
SANTA MARIA 3.07 11.13 246 6.10 135 4.52 13.32
Nest report: January 10 afternoon
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